g-f(2)1077 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE (4/22/2023), HBR, When Scenario Planning Fails

g-f Nugget Golden Knowledge (Nugget GK)

HBR Facts: 

• How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can provide clues.
• Scenario planning is not dead, but leaders must be thoughtful about its usefulness. Global companies face an ever-wider range of external shocks, coming one after another.

This genioux fact is presented in the regular way below.

ULTRA-condensed knowledge

"g-f" fishing of golden knowledge (GK) of the fabulous treasure of the digital age, The New World, The potentially disruptive digital transformation

Lessons learned, OPPORTUNITY, Alerts, HBR

🎯Exceptional Golden Knowledge (GK) Container (g-f EGK)

🏆Golden Knowledge (GK) Mine

HBR Facts:  

• Scenario planning is not dead, but leaders must be thoughtful about its usefulness. Global companies face an ever-wider range of external shocks, coming one after another. These conditions require a larger toolkit, one that complements bespoke plans with a more generalized capacity to recognize how features of a novel risk/shock will interact with the company’s vulnerabilities and strengths. 
• Leading organizations will further develop the internal communications and structures to guide responses across all outcomes. 
• Plan B shouldn’t be a permanent state of being, but the answer isn’t to better predict the unknowable future. Instead, the answer lies in being better prepared to deal with the shock.

"genioux fact" condensed as an image

Extra-condensed knowledge

Extra condensed knowledge complements ultra condensed knowledge.

HBR Facts:

• Organizations and leaders struggled, with one leader decrying, “Plan B ideology has become a permanent state of being.” Yet, leaders did not want to abandon scenario planning (and neither do we). The good news is that, as much as the leaders we studied struggled, we also saw lots of progress in how they adapted scenario planning to fit their new reality.
• We’ve organized it into four levels of responses.
1. Level 1: Stretch the scenarios under consideration.
2. Level 2: Use vulnerabilities as prism for looking at scenarios.
3. Level 3: Building strong action guidelines and internal communication.
4. Level 4: Build crisis management into the organization structure.

Condensed knowledge

The condensed knowledge complements the extra and ultra condensed knowledge.

HBR Facts:

• Our research team — which includes a former public company CEO and current chair of several boards, strategy consultants, and a professor at Harvard Business School — wanted to gain insight into how Nordic companies in particular were evolving decision-making and scenario models in the face of novel risks. Nordic leaderships teams provided an interesting benchmark globally for two reasons.
1. First, because scenario planning is quite effective for foreseeable risks and stable, smaller uncertainties, the method was long well-matched to decades of relatively smooth globalization for Nordic businesses.
2. Second, Nordic businesses have also had exceptionally large exposures to both recent seismic events: the pandemic and, due to their geographic proximity, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• We interviewed and surveyed more than 40 top leaders at 14 global businesses in multiple Nordic countries, spanning air travel to industrial manufacturing to consumer-facing sectors. Our survey and many of the interviews fell during the first quarter of 2022, when the Omicron variant was causing renewed lockdowns and Russia invaded Ukraine.
• Our interviewees suggested the last few years presented unique challenges rather than just more severe conditions. They frequently used words like “ambiguous” and “unclear” when discussing what professors Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard, and Anette Mikes call novel risks: risks that “arise from unforeseen events, from complex combinations of apparently routine events, and from apparently familiar events occurring at unprecedented scale and speed.”

REFERENCES

Kalle Heikkinen, William Kerr, Mika Malin, Panu Routila, and Eemil Rupponen, When Scenario Planning Fails, Harvard Business Review, HBR, April 21, 2023.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Kalle Heikkinen

Kalle Heikkinen is Founder and Chairman of Boston iLab LLC and Managing Partner of strategy consulting firm NAG.

William Kerr

William Kerr is a professor at Harvard Business school and Co-director of Harvard’s Managing the Future of Work project.

Mika Malin

Mika Malin is co-founder and partner of management consulting firm Helsinki Boston Group.

Panu Routila

Panu Routila is Board Professional and Chairman of the Board at Patria and Fortaco. He has a DBA from Aalto and was previously CEO of Konecranes.

Eemil Rupponen

Eemil Rupponen is a strategy consultant at NAG.

Some relevant characteristics of this "genioux fact"

• VIRAL KNOWLEDGE
• Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age
• [genioux fact deduced or extracted from HBR]
• This is a “genioux fact fast solution.”
• Tag Opportunities to those travelling at high speed on GKPath
• Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Analyzed Knowledge (EAK).
• Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

• Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts.

• Authors of the genioux fact
• Fernando Machuca

References

“genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)1077, Fernando Machuca, April 22, 2023, Genioux.com Corporation.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Fernando Machuca

CEO ‎Genioux.com Corporation

PhD with awarded honors in computer science in France

Fernando is the director of "genioux facts". He is the entrepreneur, researcher and professor who has a disruptive proposal in The Digital Age to improve the world and reduce poverty + ignorance + violence. A critical piece of the solution puzzle is "genioux facts". The Innovation Value of "genioux facts" is exceptional for individuals, companies and any kind of organization.

The 100 most recent "genioux facts"

• Some relevant and recent "genioux facts" from the g-f golden knowledge pyramid to master the big picture of the digital age. 
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• A list of relevant "genioux facts" that describe a "Classical CONTEXT" of the Digital Age
1. g-f(2)45 "The Big Picture of the Digital Age": Knowledge opens the way to staggering opportunities, risks and challenges
2. g-f(2)50 The Big Picture of the Digital Age: Mines of Golden Knowledge Growing Every Day
3. g-f(2)74 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE: Rapid change, incertitude and disruption, in a hypercompetitive environment
4. g-f(1)28 The pyramid of knowledge of a “genioux fact”: From GOLD FRUITS to GOLD JUICES
5. g-f(2)51 The Big Picture of the Digital Age: The Value of Golden Knowledge is Relative
6. g-f(2)99 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, The “genioux facts”: Essential knowledge to unleash your limitless growth.
7. g-f(2)75 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE: “Infinite Learners” to keep pace with change, incertitude and disruption, in a hypercompetitive environment
8. g-f(2)151 The Big Picture of the Digital Transformation, 3/1/2021, geniouxfacts, How To Succeed At Business Digital Transformation.
9. g-f(2)153 The Big Picture of Business Artificial Intelligence (3/3/2021) in a Single “g-f KBP” Chart
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• Showing posts sorted by relevance for query The Big Picture of the Digital Age 
• Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Digital transformation.
• Showing posts sorted by relevance for query Artificial Intelligence. 
• Showing posts sorted by relevance for query The future of work.
• Showing posts sorted by date for query The Big Picture of Sports.
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g-f(2)1 Trends in the Big Picture of the Digital Age

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news

Extra-condensed knowledge

• MIT SMR, Accelerating Supply Chain Scenario Planning. The pandemic showcases a need to make slow-moving supply chains nimbler. Using data and collaborating with partners on scenario planning can empower companies to adapt.
• MIT SMR. Developing a New Leadership Mindset for Data. A new MIT SMR Executive Guide explores the steps leaders can take to help their organizations respond to strategic opportunities and meet the challenges of the next data-driven era.
• HBR, When Managing Through Ambiguity, Develop a Clear Vision. The degree of uncertainty that we can tolerate depends upon our personal or organizational comfort level.
• WEF, Why the platform economy can unlock prosperity for billions of workers. Matching the skills of workers to the needs of users, it has the potential to streamline business processes for employers, empower employees and hugely boost the consumer experience – if it is implemented wisely.

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image.

Condensed knowledge 

1. MIT SMR, Accelerating Supply Chain Scenario Planning. The pandemic showcases a need to make slow-moving supply chains nimbler. Using data and collaborating with partners on scenario planning can empower companies to adapt. 
• As organizations and their supply chain partners have turned to scenario planning to help them “see” actionable paths amid the pandemic, such planning has become faster, nearer term, more inclusive, and digital.
• Our field research has found that digital technologies, data, and collaboration with supply chain partners are central to this effort.
• Disruptions caused by the pandemic put new urgency into scenario planning for all types of supply chains, such as those for delivering personal protective equipment or servicing the flow of patients through hospital systems. These scenarios have used planning horizons of a few weeks instead of several years, and organizations are creating scenarios in a few days or weeks instead of months.
• How can supply chain executives create scenarios at such a rapid pace without compromising the quality and the extent of information needed to create relevant scenarios? First, by taking advantage of digital capabilities: up-to-date data — including data from new types of sensors and social media — and the means to analyze this data using advanced analytic tools and artificial intelligence techniques. And second, by engaging in collaborative scenario planning, in which upstream and downstream organizations in a supply chain jointly create scenarios.
2. MIT SMR, Developing a New Leadership Mindset for Data. A new MIT SMR Executive Guide explores the steps leaders can take to help their organizations respond to strategic opportunities and meet the challenges of the next data-driven era.
• Summaries of the upcoming article series, which begins on Nov. 18, are included below.
• How Large Companies Can Grow Their Data and Analytics Talent, Thomas H. Davenport, Available Nov. 18.
• Changing Culture Is Central to Changing Business Models, Lanham Napier, Barry Libert, and K.D. de Vries, Available Nov. 23.
• Why Chief Data Officers Must Assume Leadership for Data Success, Randy Bean.
• Top-Down Leadership for Data: Seven Ways to Get Started, Thomas C. Redman, Available Dec. 2.
• Leading With Decision-Driven Data Analytics, Bart de Langhe and Stefano Puntoni, Available Dec. 9.
3. HBR, When Managing Through Ambiguity, Develop a Clear Vision. The degree of uncertainty that we can tolerate depends upon our personal or organizational comfort level. Some of us try to avoid uncertainty, some of us tolerate it, but few of us actively embrace it. We can never shrink uncertainty to zero, because the future is always uncertain, but we can reduce it by turning to experts or sleuthing for information we don’t have.
• Whether you are planning for your family’s or your organization’s future, starting from your values will help you plot a path through ambiguity. beginning with your vision of success will help you get there.
4. HBR, Disagreement Doesn’t Have to Be Divisive. A well-functioning organization, like a well-functioning society, requires employees and leaders alike to have productive conversations, even in the face of different views and opinions — in fact, especially in the face of such differences.
• Today, this is easier said than done. On social media and in real life, we regularly find ourselves engaging with people whose core beliefs and values seem to clash with our own.
• The lesson is that even when discussing the most difficult topics, it is possible for people with polar-opposite points of view to have a constructive conversation. By using the techniques I’ve described, we can bridge our divides. 
5. WEF, Why the platform economy can unlock prosperity for billions of workers. Along with all the other huge changes – healthcare, urban infrastructure, business models – brought about by the global pandemic, it is clear the world of work faces immense upheaval too. While this is alarming in the short term, there are also opportunities to re-envision working life and, building on the digitalization of the last few years, map out healthy new models that will benefit employers and employees alike, and transform all our futures. 
• The rise of the “platform economy” is one recent development business leaders should be looking hard at in the post-COVID recovery period. Matching the skills of workers to the needs of users, it has the potential to streamline business processes for employers, empower employees and hugely boost the consumer experience – if it is implemented wisely.
6. WEF, ‘We’re seeing the other side of the river’ – top quotes on life after the pandemic. Kicking off the discussions, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, paid tribute to the successful vaccine results from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech. Vaccines these companies are developing proved to be around 95% and 90% effective respectively against the new coronavirus, according to early results. “We were standing on one side of a massive river of uncertainty and hardship… thanks to the tremendous hard work of companies in the US, Germany and other corners of the world we’re now seeing the other side of the river,” LaGarde said in the opening plenary of the Pioneers summit. 
• We risk a generation of 'crushed dreams' unless jobs growth rebounds, warns Christine Lagarde.
• The successful businesses of the future will combine digital transformation and responsible practices, according to the CEO of Accenture.
7. McKinsey Quarterly, Closing the capability gap in the time of COVID-19. The COVID-19 crisis has reminded business leaders that a more capable workforce creates more resilient companies.
• Even before the pandemic struck, organizations faced a dizzying pace of change and the ever-present risk that today’s best-performing companies could be tomorrow’s vanquished ones. Against this backdrop, the virus and its shocks have shown how the capabilities and mindsets of an organization’s workforce provide a foundation for resilience and successful adaptation.
8. McKinsey Global Institute, Rethinking the future of American capitalism. Capitalism has contributed to significant gains in economic growth and prosperity throughout its history. But at a time of growing public discontent about rising inequality, heightened competition from economies with different models, and existential threats including from climate change, capitalism in its current form—and American capitalism in particular—may face its most serious test.
9. Yahoo News, It’s Your Brain: Neuroscience Can Be the Missing Piece in Digital Transformation. New neuroscientific coaching techniques can help executives shape a corporate culture based on emotional and conversational agility and nurture high-performing teams that embrace continuous change, say experts with Information Services Group (ISG) (Nasdaq: III), a leading global technology research and advisory firm. 
• “Leaders who apply neuroscience, the psychology of human dynamics and empathy to digital transformation can create a paradigm that fosters resilience and adaptability,” agile enterprise expert Ola Chowning, ISG partner, Digital Strategy and Solutions said. “Such approaches can deactivate employee fight-flight-or-freeze triggers and boost organizational effectiveness.”
10. strategy+business, Best Business Books 2020: Management. In the year’s best business book on management, Tiny Habits, Stanford University researcher B.J. Fogg shows how to change your behavior and help others change theirs, too — an essential skill at a time when we are all being called upon to develop new habits. In Acting with Power, Deborah Gruenfeld, also at Stanford, explains how an unconventional view of power can enable you to support people in ways that far exceed the limits of your positional authority. And in You’re Not Listening, journalist Kate Murphy offers an uncommonly insightful exploration of how to actually meet the dictates of an exhortation we’ve all heard before: “Listen!”

Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

[genioux fact extracted from MIT SMR, HBR, WEF, McKinsey Quarterly, McKinsey Global Institute, Yahoo News, strategy+business]

Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

1. Accelerating Supply Chain Scenario Planning, Nitin Joglekar and Shardul Phadnis, November 16, 2020, MIT SMR, MIT Sloan Management Review. 
2. Developing a New Leadership Mindset for Data, Ally MacDonald, November 16, 2020, MIT SMR, MIT Sloan Management Review. 
• ABOUT THE AUTHOR, Ally MacDonald (@allymacdonald) is senior editor at MIT Sloan Management Review.
3. When Managing Through Ambiguity, Develop a Clear Vision, Cheryl Strauss Einhorn, November 16, 2020, HBR, Harvard Business Review.
4. Disagreement Doesn’t Have to Be Divisive, Francesca Gino, November 16, 2020, HBR, Harvard Business Review.
5. Why the platform economy can unlock prosperity for billions of workers, Zishu Chen, 16 Nov 2020, WEF, World Economic Forum.
6. ‘We’re seeing the other side of the river’ – top quotes on life after the pandemic, Ceri Parker, 16 Nov 2020, WEF, World Economic Forum.
7. Closing the capability gap in the time of COVID-19,  Jon Garcia, Garrett Maples, and Michael Park, November 13, 2020, McKinsey Quarterly.
8. Rethinking the future of American capitalism, James Manyika, Gary Pinkus, and Monique Tuin, November 12, 2020, McKinsey Global Institute.
9. It’s Not Your Tech, It’s Your Brain: Neuroscience Can Be the Missing Piece in Digital Transformation, Information Services Group, Inc., GlobeNewswire16, November 2020, Yahoo News.
10. Best Business Books 2020: Management, Theodore Kinni, November 9, 2020, strategy+business.