Saturday, April 22, 2023

g-f(2)1077 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE (4/22/2023), HBR, When Scenario Planning Fails

g-f Nugget Golden Knowledge (Nugget GK)



HBR Facts: 
  • How can organizations perform scenario planning when they are hit by shocks outside of leaders’ field of vision? Interviews with Nordic executives, who experienced both the Covid-19 pandemic and were in close proximity to Russia as the country invaded Ukraine, can provide clues.
  • Scenario planning is not dead, but leaders must be thoughtful about its usefulness. Global companies face an ever-wider range of external shocks, coming one after another.



This genioux fact is presented in the regular way below.






ULTRA-condensed knowledge

"g-f" fishing of golden knowledge (GK) of the fabulous treasure of the digital age, The New World, The potentially disruptive digital transformation



Lessons learned, OPPORTUNITY, Alerts, HBR


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HBR Facts:  
  • Scenario planning is not dead, but leaders must be thoughtful about its usefulness. Global companies face an ever-wider range of external shocks, coming one after another. These conditions require a larger toolkit, one that complements bespoke plans with a more generalized capacity to recognize how features of a novel risk/shock will interact with the company’s vulnerabilities and strengths. 
  • Leading organizations will further develop the internal communications and structures to guide responses across all outcomes. 
  • Plan B shouldn’t be a permanent state of being, but the answer isn’t to better predict the unknowable future. Instead, the answer lies in being better prepared to deal with the shock.



"genioux fact" condensed as an image



Extra-condensed knowledge


Extra condensed knowledge complements ultra condensed knowledge.


HBR Facts:
  • Organizations and leaders struggled, with one leader decrying, “Plan B ideology has become a permanent state of being.” Yet, leaders did not want to abandon scenario planning (and neither do we). The good news is that, as much as the leaders we studied struggled, we also saw lots of progress in how they adapted scenario planning to fit their new reality.
  • We’ve organized it into four levels of responses.
    1. Level 1: Stretch the scenarios under consideration.
    2. Level 2: Use vulnerabilities as prism for looking at scenarios.
    3. Level 3: Building strong action guidelines and internal communication.
    4. Level 4: Build crisis management into the organization structure.


Condensed knowledge


The condensed knowledge complements the extra and ultra condensed knowledge.


HBR Facts:
  • Our research team — which includes a former public company CEO and current chair of several boards, strategy consultants, and a professor at Harvard Business School — wanted to gain insight into how Nordic companies in particular were evolving decision-making and scenario models in the face of novel risks. Nordic leaderships teams provided an interesting benchmark globally for two reasons.
    1. First, because scenario planning is quite effective for foreseeable risks and stable, smaller uncertainties, the method was long well-matched to decades of relatively smooth globalization for Nordic businesses.
    2. Second, Nordic businesses have also had exceptionally large exposures to both recent seismic events: the pandemic and, due to their geographic proximity, the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
      • We interviewed and surveyed more than 40 top leaders at 14 global businesses in multiple Nordic countries, spanning air travel to industrial manufacturing to consumer-facing sectors. Our survey and many of the interviews fell during the first quarter of 2022, when the Omicron variant was causing renewed lockdowns and Russia invaded Ukraine.
      • Our interviewees suggested the last few years presented unique challenges rather than just more severe conditions. They frequently used words like “ambiguous” and “unclear” when discussing what professors Robert S. Kaplan, Herman B. “Dutch” Leonard, and Anette Mikes call novel risks: risks that “arise from unforeseen events, from complex combinations of apparently routine events, and from apparently familiar events occurring at unprecedented scale and speed.”


REFERENCES




ABOUT THE AUTHORS


Kalle Heikkinen


Kalle Heikkinen is Founder and Chairman of Boston iLab LLC and Managing Partner of strategy consulting firm NAG.


William Kerr


William Kerr is a professor at Harvard Business school and Co-director of Harvard’s Managing the Future of Work project.


Mika Malin


Mika Malin is co-founder and partner of management consulting firm Helsinki Boston Group.


Panu Routila


Panu Routila is Board Professional and Chairman of the Board at Patria and Fortaco. He has a DBA from Aalto and was previously CEO of Konecranes.


Eemil Rupponen


Eemil Rupponen is a strategy consultant at NAG.



Some relevant characteristics of this "genioux fact"

  • VIRAL KNOWLEDGE
  • Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age
  • [genioux fact deduced or extracted from HBR]
  • This is a “genioux fact fast solution.”
  • Tag Opportunities to those travelling at high speed on GKPath
  • Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Analyzed Knowledge (EAK).
  • Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts.



References


“genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)1077, Fernando Machuca, April 22, 2023, Genioux.com Corporation.


ABOUT THE AUTHORS


PhD with awarded honors in computer science in France

Fernando is the director of "genioux facts". He is the entrepreneur, researcher and professor who has a disruptive proposal in The Digital Age to improve the world and reduce poverty + ignorance + violence. A critical piece of the solution puzzle is "genioux facts"The Innovation Value of "genioux facts" is exceptional for individuals, companies and any kind of organization.




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