1931%20Gauging%20the%20Gathering%20Storm,%20Is%20China%20Primed%20for%20War%201.png)
genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and Claude
Introduction
The essay "How Primed for War Is China?" analyzes multiple indicators that could make China more prone to initiate a major conflict, especially regarding Taiwan, while acknowledging significant uncertainties around if and when Beijing might use force.
genioux GK Nugget
"A powerful but troubled China is heading in a bad direction. It will take all the strength and sobriety the United States and its friends can muster to prevent a slide into war." —Fernando Machuca and Claude
genioux Foundational Fact
China under Xi Jinping is undertaking massive military buildup and modernization while adopting aggressive stances on disputed territories, leading experts to examine risky shifts in factors like its political decision-making structure, expectations of power decline, and calculus of the regional military balance that historically correlate to belligerence.
Top 10 Relevant genioux Facts
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- Territorial disputes are becoming less amenable to peaceful compromise, and Beijing grows anxious about permanently losing control of territories like Taiwan.
- With military power and optimism rising, Beijing likely increasingly believes it could achieve objectives through force.
- Faced with demographic, economic and strategic declines, China may turn to aggression to forestall deterioration in its relative power.
- Xi's unilateral rule concentrates decision-making and reduces institutional checks against rash actions.
- Beijing draws uncertain lessons from Russia's struggles in Ukraine that could potentially reinforce feelings of threat.
- The layered economic, technological and diplomatic campaign by the U.S. and its partners risks provoking rather than deterring Beijing.
- Rapid erosion of Beijing's credibility regarding its promise of peaceful reunification alarms China.
- The advanced capabilities and sophistication China's forces have built towards a Taiwan contingency far outmatch Russia's situation.
- Much hinges on Beijing's perception of American resolve and ability to intervene decisively.
- Washington must balance deterrent strength with restraint regarding actions that could spur preemptive Chinese aggression.
1931%20Gauging%20the%20Gathering%20Storm,%20Is%20China%20Primed%20for%20War%203.png)
Conclusion
While predictions remain enormously complex, assessments grounded in historical precedent offer little reassurance about stability as China's circumstances foster greater temptation towards violence.
REFERENCE
The GK Essay
Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, How Primed for War Is China?, Foreign Policy (FP), February 4, 2024.
Michael Beckley
Michael Beckley is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University¹². He is also a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute¹². His research focuses on great power competition and has been recognized with awards from the American Political Science Association and the International Studies Association¹². His work has been featured in numerous media outlets, including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New York Times, NPR, and the Washington Post¹².
Before joining Tufts University, Beckley worked for Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, the U.S. Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace¹². He continues to advise offices within the U.S. Intelligence Community and U.S. Department of Defense¹².
Beckley holds a PhD in political science from Columbia University¹². His first book, "Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower," was published in 2018 by Cornell University Press¹².
Source: Conversation with Bing, 2/5/2024
(1) Michael Beckley | Department of Political Science - Tufts University. https://as.tufts.edu/politicalscience/people/faculty/michael-beckley.
(2) Michael Beckley Profile | Tufts University. https://facultyprofiles.tufts.edu/michael-beckley.
(3) Michael Beckley - Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/contributor/michael-beckley/.
(4) China’s Peaking Power: An Interview with Michael Beckley. https://uscnpm.org/2021/11/11/china-power-peak-interview-michael-beckley/.
(5) HOME | Political Science. https://www.michaelbeckley.org/.
Hal Brands
Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)¹². He is also a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion¹². Brands has authored or edited several books, including "The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry," "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China," and "The New Makers of Modern Strategy: From the Ancient World to the Digital Age"¹².
Brands has served as Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Strategic Planning and lead writer for the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States¹². He is a member of the State Department's Foreign Affairs Policy Board and consults with a range of government offices and agencies in the intelligence and national security communities². His writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and other outlets². He has lectured widely on foreign policy and global affairs to audiences in government, academia, and the private sector²..
Source: Conversation with Bing, 2/5/2024
(1) Hal Brands | Johns Hopkins SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/people/brands.
(2) hbrands2 | Johns Hopkins SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/users/hbrands2.
(3) Hal Brands - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Brands.
(4) Hal Brands | American Enterprise Institute - AEI. https://www.aei.org/profile/hal-brands/.
(5) Hal Brands - Georgetown University. https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/people/hal-brands.
(6) Getty Images. https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hal-brands-professor-of-global-affairs-at-johns-hopkins-news-photo/643494550.
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1845%20Super%20League%20of%20Stocks,%20The%20Magnificent%20Seven%20Ascend%20in%20a%20$10%20Trillion%20Transformation%20Game%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1845 Super League of Stocks: The "Magnificent Seven" Ascend in a $10 Trillion Transformation Game
1844%20AI%20Marketplace%20Unlocked,%20OpenAI's%20GPT%20Store%20Fuels%20Your%20Personal%20AI%20Assistant%20Revolution%201.png)
g-f(2)1844 AI Marketplace Unlocked: OpenAI's GPT Store Fuels Your Personal AI Assistant Revolution
1843%20GPT%20Store%20Unleashed,%20A%20Deep%20Dive%20into%20OpenAI's%20AI%20Marketplace%20Revolution%201.png)
g-f(2)1843 GPT Store Unleashed: A Deep Dive into OpenAI's AI Marketplace Revolution
1842%20Scaling%20With%20Safeguards%20So%20Everyone%20Wins,%20The%20GPT%20Store's%20Mandate%201.png)
g-f(2)1842 Scaling With Safeguards So Everyone Wins: The GPT Store's Mandate
1841%20Revolutionizing%20AI,%20OpenAI%E2%80%99s%20GPT%20Store%20Unveiled%201.png)
g-f(2)1841 Revolutionizing AI: OpenAI’s GPT Store Unveiled
1840%20Bard's%20Evaluation%20of%20g-f(2)1839%201.png)
g-f(2)1840 Bard's Evaluation of g-f(2)1839
1839%20Igniting%20Your%20Transformation,%20g-f%20GK%20is%20the%20Fuel%20of%20Greatness%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1839 Igniting Your Transformation: g-f GK is the Fuel of Greatness
1838%20The%20Billion-Dollar%20Rookie%20and%20the%20AI%20Uprising,%20Redefining%20Greatness%20in%20the%20Digital%20Age%201.png)
g-f(2)1838 The Billion-Dollar Rookie and the AI Uprising: Redefining Greatness in the Digital Age
1837%20Perplexity,%20Illuminating%20the%20Path%20to%20a%20Next-Gen%20Search%20Experience%201.png)
g-f(2)1837 Perplexity: Illuminating the Path to a Next-Gen Search Experience
1836%20Perplexity's%20Rise,%20Jeff%20Bezos%20Bets%20Big%20on%20AI-Driven%20Web%20Search%20Disruption%201.png)
g-f(2)1836 Perplexity's Rise: Jeff Bezos Bets Big on AI-Driven Web Search Disruption
1835,%20The%20Search%20Engine%20Tour%20-%20Pedaling%20Towards%20Golden%20Knowledge%20(GK)%201.png)
g-f(2)1835: The Search Engine Tour - Pedaling Towards Golden Knowledge (g-f GK)
1834%20The%20g-f%20New%20World,%20Navigating%20the%20Golden%20Age%20of%20Transformation%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1834 The g-f New World: Navigating the Golden Age of Transformation
1833%20The%20Choice%20Before%20Us,%20Architects%20or%20Victims%20of%20Change%201.png)
g-f(2)1833 The Choice Before Us: Architects or Victims of Change
1832%20Navigating%20the%20g-f%20New%20World,%20A%20Journey%20to%20Mastery%20in%20the%20Digital%20Age%201.png)
g-f(2)1832 Navigating the g-f New World: A Journey to Mastery in the Digital Age
1831%20The%20Spark%20that%20Ignited%20a%20Thousand%20Flames,%20A%20Tale%20of%20the%20g-f%20Growth%20Domino%20Effect%201.png)
g-f(2)1831 The Spark that Ignited a Thousand Flames: A Tale of the g-f Growth Domino Effect
1830%20Unleash%20your%20HI,%20partner%20with%20AI,%20and%20ignite%20the%20g-f%20domino,%20watch%20progress%20cascade%201.png)
g-f(2)1830 Unleash your HI, partner with AI, and ignite the g-f domino: watch progress cascade
1829%20Game%20On!%20Unleashing%20the%20g-f%20Growth%20Hat%20Trick,%20From%20Personal%20Plays%20to%20Global%20Glory%203.png)
g-f(2)1829 Game On! Unleashing the g-f Growth Hat Trick: From Personal Plays to Global Glory
1828%20Domino%20Effect%20of%20Greatness,%20Widespread%20g-f%20Growth%20Triggers%20a%20Global%20Transformation%20Cascade%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1828 Domino Effect of Greatness: Widespread g-f Growth Triggers a Global Transformation Cascade
1827%20Charting%20Your%20Course%20to%20Greatness,%20A%20Personal%20Strategy%20Blueprint%201.png)
g-f(2)1827 Charting Your Course to Greatness: A Personal Strategy Blueprint
1826%20Blossoming%20Tomorrow%20By%20Planting%20Today,%20From%20AI%20to%20Alzheimer%E2%80%99s%20Breakthroughs%201.png)
g-f(2)1826 Blossoming Tomorrow By Planting Today: From AI to Alzheimer’s Breakthroughs
1825%20Unveiling%20the%20Future,%20Extracted%20Insights%20on%20AI%20Predictions%20for%202024%20(By%20Bing%20Chatbot)%201.png)
g-f(2)1825 Unveiling the Future: Extracted Insights on AI Predictions for 2024 (By Bing Chatbot)
1824%202024's%20AI%20Horizons,%20Promise%20and%20Prudence%201.png)
g-f(2)1824 2024's AI Horizons: Promise and Prudence
1823%20Strategies%20for%20Success,%20Red%20Teaming%20in%20the%20World%20of%20Generative%20AI%202.png)
g-f(2)1823 Strategies for Success: Red Teaming in the World of Generative AI
1821%20With%20Great%20Power%20Comes%20Great%20Opportunity,%20AI%20for%20Positive%20Corporate%20Impact%201.png)
g-f(2)1821 With Great Power Comes Great Opportunity: AI for Positive Corporate Impact
1820%20The%20Twin%20Pillars%20of%20AI's%20Business%20Boon,%20Exponentiality%20and%20Ethics%2010=.png)
g-f(2)1820 The Twin Pillars of AI's Business Boon: Exponentiality and Ethics
1819%20AI,%20The%20Golden%20Key%20to%20Global%20Value%201.png)
g-f(2)1819 AI: The Golden Key to Global Value
1818%20Unveiling%20the%20Wizardry,%20How%20Capital%20One%20Crafts%20Magical%20Experiences%20with%20Gen%20AI%201.png)
g-f(2)1818 Unveiling the Wizardry: How Capital One Crafts Magical Experiences with Gen AI
1817%20The%20AI%20Alchemist,%20A%20Tale%20of%20Limitless%20Growth%20in%20the%20g-f%20New%20World%202.png)
g-f(2)1817 The AI Alchemist: A Tale of Limitless Growth in the g-f New World
1816%20Click%20Your%20Way%20to%20Limitless%20Growth,%20g-f%20AI%20DT%20Ignites%20Your%20Game%201.png)
g-f(2)1816 Click Your Way to Limitless Growth: g-f AI DT Ignites Your Game
1815%20Beyond%20Limits,%20How%20g-f%20AI%20DT%20Reshapes%20Your%20Growth%20Game%201ng.png)
g-f(2)1815 Beyond Limits: How g-f AI DT Reshapes Your Growth Game
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g-f(2)1814 Unmask the Big Picture and Master the Transformation: Why the g-f Lighthouse Shines Brightest
1813%20Unmask%20the%20Big%20Picture,%20Dive%20into%20the%20g-f%20Lighthouse%201.png)
g-f(2)1813 Unmask the Big Picture: Dive into the g-f Lighthouse
1812%20Dance%20Your%20Path,%20A%20Bard's%20Guide%20to%20Navigating%20the%20g-f%20New%20World%20with%20Wisdom%20and%20Grace%201.png)
g-f(2)1812 Dance Your Path: A Bard's Guide to Navigating the g-f New World with Wisdom and Grace
1811%20From%20Running%20to%20Transforming,%20Finding%20Your%20Balance%20in%20the%20Age%20of%20Limitless%20Growth%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1811 From Running to Transforming: Finding Your Balance in the Age of Limitless Growth
1810%20From%20Beta%20to%20Brilliance,%20genioux%20facts%20Ignites%20the%20g-f%20New%20World%20in%202024%201.jpg)
g-f(2)1810 From Beta to Brilliance: genioux facts Ignites the g-f New World in 2024
1809%20The%20Art%20of%20Digital%20Sponsorship,%20A%20Marketing%20Guide%20for%20genioux%20facts%201.png)
g-f(2)1809 The Art of Digital Sponsorship: A Marketing Guide for ‘genioux facts’
1807%20Unlocking%20the%20Future,%20Become%20an%20Architect%20of%20Transformation%20with%20genioux%20facts%20Sponsorship%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1807 Unlocking the Future: Become an Architect of Transformation with "genioux facts" Sponsorship
1806%20From%20Beta%20to%20Beacon,%20genioux%20facts%20Illuminates%20a%20Brighter%20Future%201.png){kind=tracking}
g-f(2)1806 From Beta to Beacon: "genioux facts" Illuminates a Brighter Future
1805%20genioux%20GK%20Nugget%20of%20the%20Week%20(12312023),%20A%20New%20Year%E2%80%99s%20Resolution%201.png)
g-f(2)1805 genioux GK Nugget of the Week (12/31/2023): A New Year’s Resolution
1804%20Paving%20the%20Golden%20Path%20to%20a%20Better%20World,%20Your%20Invitation%20to%20Join%20the%20genioux%20facts%20Sponsorship%20Collective%201.png)
g-f(2)1804 Paving the Golden Path to a Better World: Your Invitation to Join the "genioux facts" Sponsorship Collective
1803%20Illuminating%20an%20Ethical%20Pathway%20for%20Collective%20Advancement%201.png)
g-f(2)1803 Illuminating an Ethical Pathway for Collective Advancement
1802%20The%20Shared%20Playbook,%20genioux%20facts%20Champions%20Collective%20Triumphs%20Together%201.png)
g-f(2)1802: The Shared Playbook: "genioux facts" Champions Collective Triumphs Together
1801%20No%20Winner,%20No%20Loser,%20Just%20One%20Victorious%20Path,%20genioux%20facts%20Shows%20Why%20Co-Creation%20Wins%201.png)
g-f(2)1801 No Winner, No Loser, Just One Victorious Path: "genioux facts" Shows Why Co-Creation Wins
1800%20The%20GKPath,%20Paving%20the%20Way%20to%20Success%20in%20the%20g-f%20New%20World%203.png)
g-f(2)1800 The GKPath: Paving the Way to Success in the g-f New World
1779%20Accelerate%20Your%20Growth,%20Unveiling%20the%20Power%20of%20GKPath%204.png)
g-f(2)1779 Accelerate Your Growth: Unveiling the Power of GKPath
1778%20Illuminating%20Expressways%20to%20Unbounded%20Growth%202.jpg)
g-f(2)1778 Illuminating Expressways to Unbounded Growth
1777%20GKPath,%20Unleash%20Your%20Growth%20with%20No%20Speed%20Limit%205.jpg)
g-f(2)1777 GKPath: Unleash Your Growth with No Speed Limit
1776%20The%20g-f%20New%20World,%20A%20Reality%20Shaped%20by%20Transformation%20and%20Golden%20Knowledge%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1776 The g-f New World: A Reality Shaped by Transformation and Golden Knowledge
1775%20Rewire%20Like%20an%20Olympian,%20Optimizing%20Your%20Brain%20and%20Nutrition%20for%20Unstoppable%20Growth%201.png)
g-f(2)1775 Rewire Like an Olympian: Optimizing Your Brain and Nutrition for Unstoppable Growth
1774%20It's%20a%20Game%20of%20Perpetual%20Progress,%20Sports%20and%20Business%20Lessons%20for%20Sustained%20Excellence%201.png)
g-f(2)1774 It's a Game of Perpetual Progress: Sports and Business Lessons for Sustained Excellence
1773%20The%20Grit%20Behind%20Glory,%20Universal%20Drivers%20of%20Transformation%20Across%20Fields%201.png){kind=spacer}
g-f(2)1773 The Grit Behind Glory: Universal Drivers of Transformation Across Fields
1772%20Navigating%20the%20AI%20Seas,%20MIT%20SMR's%20Top%2010%20Insights%20for%20Business%20Leaders%201.png)
g-f(2)1772 Navigating the AI Seas: MIT SMR's Top 10 Insights for Business Leaders
1770%20The%20Championship%20of%20Wisdom,%20ChatGPT's%20Grand%20Slam%20Story%201.png)
1769%20Constructing%20Wins%20Daily,%20Claude's%20Sports%20Playbook%20for%20the%20Game%20of%20Personal%20Growth%201.png)
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1767%20Team%20Humanity's%20Playbook,%20A%20genioux%20Fact%20Appetizer%20for%20Personal%20Growth%201.png)
1766%20Decoding%20Success%20and%20Well-Being,%20HBR's%20Selections%20for%20Work-Life%20Mastery%201.png)
1765%20Business%20Flings%20or%20Forever%20Matches,%20Selecting%20the%20Right%20Generative%20AI%20Companion%201.png)
| g-f(2)1765 Business Flings or Forever Matches: Selecting the Right Generative AI Companion |
1764%20Navigating%20Leadership,%20Unveiling%20the%20Core%20Lessons%20of%202023%20from%20MIT%20SMR%201.png)
1763%2010%20Sports%20Stars,%2010%20genioux%20GK%20Nuggets,%20Your%20Game-Changing%20Toolkit%20for%20Personal%20Evolution%201.png)
1762%20g-f%20Story%20of%20the%20Week%20(12242023)%201.jpg)
1761%20genioux%20GK%20Nugget%20of%20the%20Week%20(12242023)%201.png)
1760%20genioux%20Foundational%20Fact%20of%20the%20Week%20(12242023)%201.jpg)
1759%20The%2010%20Most%20Read%20genioux%20Fact%20Posts%20of%20the%20Month%20(12242023)%202.png)
1758%20The%2010%20Most%20Read%20genioux%20Fact%20Posts%20of%20the%20Week%20(12242023)%201.png)
2250%20Visualizing%20Progress,%20The%20g-f%20New%20World's%20Viral%20Image%201.png)
2207%20Beyond%20the%20Scoreboard,%20The%20g-f%20Values%20of%20True%20Greatness%20in%20Sports%201.png)
1190%20THE%20NEW%20WORLD%20(772023),%20PsyPost,%20Mindfulness%20reduces%20avoidance%20of%20information%20that%20may%20cause%20worry%20and%20regret,%20study%20finds.png)