g-f(2)1931 Gauging the Gathering Storm: Is China Primed for War?

 

genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and Claude

Introduction

The essay "How Primed for War Is China?" analyzes multiple indicators that could make China more prone to initiate a major conflict, especially regarding Taiwan, while acknowledging significant uncertainties around if and when Beijing might use force.

genioux GK Nugget

"A powerful but troubled China is heading in a bad direction. It will take all the strength and sobriety the United States and its friends can muster to prevent a slide into war." —Fernando Machuca and Claude

genioux Foundational Fact

China under Xi Jinping is undertaking massive military buildup and modernization while adopting aggressive stances on disputed territories, leading experts to examine risky shifts in factors like its political decision-making structure, expectations of power decline, and calculus of the regional military balance that historically correlate to belligerence.

Top 10 Relevant genioux Facts

1. Territorial disputes are becoming less amenable to peaceful compromise, and Beijing grows anxious about permanently losing control of territories like Taiwan.
2. With military power and optimism rising, Beijing likely increasingly believes it could achieve objectives through force.
3. Faced with demographic, economic and strategic declines, China may turn to aggression to forestall deterioration in its relative power.
4. Xi's unilateral rule concentrates decision-making and reduces institutional checks against rash actions.
5. Beijing draws uncertain lessons from Russia's struggles in Ukraine that could potentially reinforce feelings of threat.
6. The layered economic, technological and diplomatic campaign by the U.S. and its partners risks provoking rather than deterring Beijing.
7. Rapid erosion of Beijing's credibility regarding its promise of peaceful reunification alarms China.
8. The advanced capabilities and sophistication China's forces have built towards a Taiwan contingency far outmatch Russia's situation.
9. Much hinges on Beijing's perception of American resolve and ability to intervene decisively.
10. Washington must balance deterrent strength with restraint regarding actions that could spur preemptive Chinese aggression.

Conclusion

While predictions remain enormously complex, assessments grounded in historical precedent offer little reassurance about stability as China's circumstances foster greater temptation towards violence.

REFERENCE

The GK Essay

Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, How Primed for War Is China?, Foreign Policy (FP), February 4, 2024.

Michael Beckley

Michael Beckley is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Tufts University¹². He is also a Jeane Kirkpatrick Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute¹². His research focuses on great power competition and has been recognized with awards from the American Political Science Association and the International Studies Association¹². His work has been featured in numerous media outlets, including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New York Times, NPR, and the Washington Post¹².

Before joining Tufts University, Beckley worked for Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, the U.S. Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace¹². He continues to advise offices within the U.S. Intelligence Community and U.S. Department of Defense¹².

Beckley holds a PhD in political science from Columbia University¹². His first book, "Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower," was published in 2018 by Cornell University Press¹².

Source: Conversation with Bing, 2/5/2024

(1) Michael Beckley | Department of Political Science - Tufts University. https://as.tufts.edu/politicalscience/people/faculty/michael-beckley.

(2) Michael Beckley Profile | Tufts University. https://facultyprofiles.tufts.edu/michael-beckley.

(3) Michael Beckley - Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/contributor/michael-beckley/.

(4) China’s Peaking Power: An Interview with Michael Beckley. https://uscnpm.org/2021/11/11/china-power-peak-interview-michael-beckley/.

(5) HOME | Political Science. https://www.michaelbeckley.org/.

Hal Brands

Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)¹². He is also a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion¹². Brands has authored or edited several books, including "The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry," "Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China," and "The New Makers of Modern Strategy: From the Ancient World to the Digital Age"¹².

Brands has served as Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Strategic Planning and lead writer for the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States¹². He is a member of the State Department's Foreign Affairs Policy Board and consults with a range of government offices and agencies in the intelligence and national security communities². His writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and other outlets². He has lectured widely on foreign policy and global affairs to audiences in government, academia, and the private sector²..

Source: Conversation with Bing, 2/5/2024

(1) Hal Brands | Johns Hopkins SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/kissinger/people/brands.

(2) hbrands2 | Johns Hopkins SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/users/hbrands2.

(3) Hal Brands - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Brands.

(4) Hal Brands | American Enterprise Institute - AEI. https://www.aei.org/profile/hal-brands/.

(5) Hal Brands - Georgetown University. https://uschinadialogue.georgetown.edu/people/hal-brands.

(6) Getty Images. https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hal-brands-professor-of-global-affairs-at-johns-hopkins-news-photo/643494550.

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