Wednesday, January 17, 2024

g-f(2)1864 Economic Tsunami: The $10 Trillion Ripple Effect of a Taiwan War

 


genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT


Introduction:


The article "Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwandiscusses the potential for conflict over Taiwan and estimates the colossal cost of such a war, emphasizing its significant global economic ramifications.



genioux GK Nugget:


"The estimated cost of a war over Taiwan is around $10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of the global GDP, surpassing the economic impact of recent events such as the war in Ukraine, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Global Financial Crisis." — Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT



genioux Foundational Fact:


Factors contributing to the potential crisis include China's growing economic and military power, Taiwan's strengthening sense of national identity, and tense relations between Beijing and Washington.



Top 10 Relevant genioux Facts:



  1. Despite the low probability of an imminent Chinese invasion, tensions persist due to issues like corruption in China's military and long-standing geopolitical tensions.
  2. Global entities, from Wall Street to military planners, are preparing for various scenarios, including a Chinese maritime quarantine, seizure of Taiwan's islands, or a full-scale invasion.
  3. Interest in the Taiwan crisis has surged among multinational firms, especially after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
  4. Taiwan plays a crucial role in the global semiconductor supply chain, with a significant impact on various sectors, including electronics and automobiles.
  5. Bloomberg Economics modeled two scenarios: a Chinese invasion involving the US and a blockade cutting Taiwan off from global trade, both with severe economic repercussions.
  6. In the event of war, Taiwan's economy could face a 40% blow to GDP, while China and the US would also experience substantial economic downturns.
  7. The period from Taiwan's January election to the new president's May inauguration is considered a danger zone for potential Chinese actions against Taiwan.
  8. Both Beijing and Washington have made statements escalating tensions, with Xi Jinping expressing a desire for unification by 2027.
  9. The Bloomberg Economics Taiwan stress index, based on geopolitical indicators, shows elevated tensions over the last year and a half.
  10. Businesses and governments are already making preparations, with investors reducing exposure to Taiwan and geopolitical tensions affecting global investments.



Conclusion:


While the article highlights the severe economic consequences of a Taiwan conflict, it suggests that the high cost could incentivize stakeholders to avoid such a crisis, even though the status quo might not be the ideal outcome for Taipei, Beijing, and Washington.


Please note that this summary is a condensed version, and for detailed information, it's recommended to refer to the original Bloomberg article.



REFERENCE

The GK Article


Jennifer Welch, Jenny Leonard, Maeva Cousin, Gerard DiPippo, and Tom Orlik, Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan, Bloomberg, January 8, 2024.


Bing Chatbot's Summary:


The article "Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan" discusses the potential economic and geopolitical implications of a hypothetical war over Taiwan¹²³⁴⁵. The key points are:


  • A war over Taiwan would have a cost so vast that even those unhappiest with the status quo have reason not to risk it¹⁵.
  • Bloomberg Economics estimates the price tag at around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP¹⁵.
  • The conditions for a crisis are in place due to China’s rising economic and military heft, Taiwan’s burgeoning sense of national identity, and fractious relations between Beijing and Washington²³⁵.
  • Despite the tensions, few put a high probability of an imminent Chinese invasion⁵.
  • The outbreak of war in Ukraine and Gaza are reminder of how long-simmering tensions can erupt into conflict⁵.
  • Everyone from Wall Street investors to military planners and businesses that rely on Taiwan’s semiconductors is already moving to hedge against the risk⁵.
  • Bloomberg Economics has modeled two scenarios: a Chinese invasion drawing the US into a local conflict, and a blockade cutting Taiwan off from trade with the rest of the world⁵.


Source: Conversation with Bing, 1/17/2024

(1) Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan. https://news.yahoo.com/xi-biden-10-trillion-cost-000011907.html.

(2) China's invasion of Taiwan to cost around $10 trn, nearly 10% of global GDP. https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/china-s-invasion-of-taiwan-to-cost-around-10-trn-nearly-10-of-global-gdp-124010900098_1.html.

(3) Xi, Biden and a $10t. cost of war over Taiwan. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/xi-biden-and-a-10t-cost-of-war-over-taiwan/ar-AA1mSq4V.

(4) Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan. https://www.hoover.org/research/xi-biden-and-10-trillion-cost-war-over-taiwan.

(5) Xi, Biden and the $10 Trillion Cost of War Over Taiwan. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/xi-biden-and-the-10-trillion-cost-of-war-over-taiwan-1.2019407.



Jennifer Welch


Jennifer Welch is the Chief Geo-economics Analyst for Bloomberg Economics¹. She has previously served as the Director for China and Taiwan on the U.S. National Security Council and as an advisor on Asia and the Pacific for the Vice President¹. Based in Washington, D.C., Welch specializes in geo-economics and contributes to Bloomberg's understanding of global economic trends¹.


Source: Conversation with Bing, 1/17/2024

(1) Jennifer Welch - Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AWcp9P8TeMM/jennifer-welch.

(2) The Massive Economic Impact If China Invades Taiwan - Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-01-12/odd-lots-the-economic-impact-if-china-invades-taiwan-podcast.

(3) Jennifer Welch on the Taiwan Election and Cross-Strait Dynamics. https://theasiagroup.com/jennifer-welch-on-the-taiwan-election-and-cross-strait-dynamics/.

(4) www.fiendbear.com. https://www.fiendbear.com/Curmudgeon544.htm.



Jenny Leonard


Jenny Leonard is a White House Reporter for Bloomberg News, based in Washington, D.C¹². She covers topics related to international trade, economic agreements, and political developments between the United States and other countries, particularly China³. Before joining Bloomberg News in May 2018, she was an associate editor for Inside U.S. Trade for more than two years⁴. She has also freelanced for Vice News and USA Today⁴. Leonard's work is widely recognized, and she has a significant following on social media².


Source: Conversation with Bing, 1/17/2024

(1) Jenny Leonard - Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ATpfLAnnS4k/jenny-leonard.

(2) Jenny Leonard’s Profile | Bloomberg News Journalist | Muck Rack. https://muckrack.com/jenny-leonard.

(3) Jenny Leonard - Journalist Profile - Intelligent Relations. https://intelligentrelations.com/journalist/jenny-leonard/.

(4) Bloomberg's Leonard moving to White House team - Talking Biz News. https://talkingbiznews.com/they-talk-biz-news/bloombergs-leonard-moving-to-white-house-team/.

(5) undefined. https://t.co/5zDmKU7DkO.

(6) undefined. https://t.co/hr6Ho0y0Pi.



Maeva Cousin


Maeva Cousin is a Senior Euro-Area Economist at Bloomberg Economics¹. Prior to joining Bloomberg, she spent eight years at HM Treasury, where she led the euro-area analysis team¹. She also spent a year as a researcher at the University of Lausanne¹. Cousin is based in Zurich and specializes in covering the euro area¹. Her work includes analyzing and reporting on various economic trends and developments within the region¹.


Source: Conversation with Bing, 1/17/2024

(1) Maeva Cousin - Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AT4lHQ8HtSk/maeva-cousin.

(2) World Economy Fractures Along New Geopolitical Lines - Bloomberg.com. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-geopolitical-investments-economic-shift/.

(3) The Cost of Localizing Clean Energy Supply Chains | Bloomberg .... https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/webinar/clean-energys-supply-chain-conundrum/.

(4) Maeva Cousin’s Profile | Bloomberg News, MSN (US), Yahoo Finance .... https://muckrack.com/maeva-cousin.



Gerard DiPippo 


Gerard DiPippo is the Senior Geo-Economics Analyst for Bloomberg Economics¹. He was previously a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic & International Studies and spent 11 years in the U.S. intelligence community¹³⁴. From 2018 to 2021, DiPippo was a Deputy National Intelligence Officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council, where he led the intelligence community's economic analysis of East Asia². He also served as a senior economic analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, focusing on East Asia, South Asia, and global economic issues⁴. DiPippo holds a bachelor's degree in economics and philosophy from Dartmouth College².


Source: Conversation with Bing, 1/17/2024

(1) Gerard DiPippo - Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/AWcp6g7cB18/gerard-dipippo.

(2) ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTORS – THE PENN PROJECT ON THE FUTURE OF US-CHINA .... https://web.sas.upenn.edu/future-of-us-china-relations/additional-contributors/.

(3) Gerard DiPippo on the Russia Sanctions, Demographic Decline, and the .... https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/gerard-dipippo-russia-sanctions-demographic-decline-and-future-global-monetary-system.

(4) Gerard DiPippo — International Capital Strategies. http://www.internationalcapitalstrategies.com/gerard-dipippo.

(5) Colby Smith, Steven Kelly, and Gerard DiPippo on the Highlights of 2023 .... https://www.mercatus.org/macro-musings/colby-smith-steven-kelly-and-gerard-dipippo-highlights-2023-and-looking-ahead-future.



Tom Orlik


Tom Orlik is the Chief Economist for Bloomberg Economics¹. He is based in Washington D.C., following more than a decade in Beijing¹. Prior to his current role, he was the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg and China economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal⁵. He has also worked at the British Treasury, European Commission, and International Monetary Fund⁵. Orlik is the author of "Understanding China's Economic Indicators", a guide to China's economic data¹. His work focuses on providing in-depth analysis of macroeconomic data and policies and their impact on financial markets globally³⁴.


Source: Conversation with Bing, 1/17/2024

(1) Tom Orlik - Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/APScahppEq4/tom-orlik.

(2) Voices on China – Tom Orlik, Chief Economist at Bloomberg. https://www.youngchinawatchers.com/voices-on-china-tom-orlik-chief-economist-at-bloomberg/.

(3) Tom Orlik | ChinaFile. https://bing.com/search?q=Tom+Orlik+chief+economist+for+Bloomberg+Economics.

(4) Tom Orlik | ChinaFile. https://www.chinafile.com/contributors/tom-orlik.

(5) Tom Orlik | Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/people/tom-orlik/.



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Categorization


This genioux Fact post is classified as Breaking Knowledge which means: Insights for comprehending the forces molding our world and making sense of news and trends.



Type: Breaking Knowledge, Free Speech


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References


genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)1864, Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT, January 17, 2024, Genioux.com Corporation.

The genioux facts program has established a robust foundation of over 1863 Big Picture of the Digital Age posts [g-f(2)1 - g-f(2)1863].



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