Showing posts with label Biases. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Biases. Show all posts

Friday, March 19, 2021

g-f(2)173 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION, 3/18/2021, Knowledge@Wharton, How Biases Influence CEOs Throughout Their Careers.




Extra-condensed knowledge




Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image



Condensed knowledge


  • CEOs are equally vulnerable to biases, according to a new research paper titled “Behavioral Corporate Finance: The Life Cycle of a CEO Career,” by Wharton finance professor Marius Guenzel and Ulrike Malmendier, professor of finance and economics at the University of California, Berkeley. 
    • By documenting how biases affect even the most educated and influential decision-makers, such as CEOs, the field has generated important insights into the hard-wiring of biases. 
    • Biases do not simply stem from a lack of education, nor are they restricted to low-ability agents. Instead, biases are significant elements of human decision-making at the highest levels of organizations.
    • The “rational-manager paradigm” makes presumptions on three fronts: (a) selection, (b) learning, and (c) market discipline, the paper stated. 
      • In the “selection” aspect, it is presumed that corporate managers “are smart and highly educated,” and therefore not susceptible to the biases of consumers and investors. 
      • In the “learning” aspect, they are expected to learn from “occasional mistakes,” and then “update rationally and optimize” their decisions in the future. 
      • The “market discipline” aspect is where managers are closely monitored by their boards and the market, “keeping any bias-driven errors at bay.”
    • However, that line of reasoning is flawed, according to behavioral corporate finance research over the past 15 years or so, the researchers wrote in their paper. 
    • “We focus on managerial biases and how these biases play a role in each of the different career phases – CEO appointments, the CEO being at the helm of the firm, and then being dismissed eventually,” said Guenzel. “The traditional arguments for why a CEO, we would think, is rational are CEO selection, learning and market discipline. 
      • Our contribution is to say that it’s not clear that these arguments are sufficient to prevent biased decision-making at the very top of organizations.”
    • CEO overconfidence could also seep into decisions on hiring other members of the executive team. “If I’m an overconfident CEO, I might prefer a chief financial officer who has similar viewpoints as me,” said Guenzel. 
      • “Having people next to you that think like you and behave like you can accelerate or intensify bad decision-making at the top, when we have biased decision-makers.”

    Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

    [genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from Knowledge@Wharton]

    Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Analyzed Knowledge (EAK).

    Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Supported by research.

    Authors of the genioux fact

    Fernando Machuca


    References




    ABOUT THE AUTHORS



    Listen to the Wharton Business Daily show on SiriusXM channel 132, Monday through Friday from 10 a.m. to 12 noon. Host Dan Loney goes behind the headlines of the world’s biggest business stories with Wharton faculty and expert guests. Highlights from past shows are featured below.


    Host - Wharton Business Daily
    Twitter account: @DanLoney21

    Dan Loney’s broadcasting career has included more than 25 years in the realm of sports, news and business on a variety of formats, including national radio networks The Wall Street Journal Radio Network, ABC Radio and ESPN Radio. On the field, his broadcasting career has included play-by-play for more than 2,100 professional baseball games on the radio and another 500 on television, including work for the YES Network and CN8. His abilities behind the microphone have led to work with several universities in the Philadelphia region, including Princeton University and now, The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.


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    Tuesday, February 2, 2021

    g-f(2)101 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, WSJ, Worried About Ageism? Where You Live Matters.


    VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news




    Extra-condensed knowledge


    A recent study of data collected from all 50 states found that implicit bias—a subconscious negative attitude—against older people was most prevalent in the country’s southeastern and northeastern states. 
    • The findings were based on responses of 803,000 people ages 15 to 94 who completed a test involving photos of young and old people and words associated with those images.
    • Age bias might affect how older people are treated in the pandemic.
    • Researchers didn’t determine why certain states showed more bias. One theory is that in states with a large population of retirees, there may be more tension between young and old over how government dollars are spent on things like housing, medical facilities and support networks, says William Chopik, an assistant professor of psychology at Michigan State University and one of the authors of the study. 


    Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image


    Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

    [genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from WSJ]

    Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Deduced and Extracted Knowledge (EDEK).

    Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Supported by a study from all 50 states.


    Authors of the genioux fact

    Fernando Machuca


    References




    ABOUT THE AUTHORS

    Bureau Chief, The Wall Street Journal

    Clare Ansberry is bureau chief of the Pittsburgh bureau of The Wall Street Journal. In 1984 Ms. Ansberry joined the Journal’s Cleveland bureau as a reporter. She transferred to the Pittsburgh bureau as a reporter in 1985 and has covered banking, photography and the steel industry. She became Pittsburgh’s deputy bureau chief in September 1992 and was named bureau chief in January 1996.
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    Saturday, January 30, 2021

    g-f(2)97 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, ABA, Everyone Is a Little Bit Biased.



    Extra-condensed knowledge

    We all have biases that affect all aspects of our lives and the lives of others with whom we interact.
    • Having a bias doesn’t make you a bad person, however, and not every bias is negative or hurtful. 
    • It’s not recognizing biases that can lead to bad decisions at work, in life, and in relationships.
    • Although we must be willing to identify and interrupt our own biases, we must also recognize and be willing to interrupt bias in others.


    Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image


    Condensed knowledge  

    • We all have biases that affect all aspects of our lives and the lives of others with whom we interact.
      • Having a bias doesn’t make you a bad person, however, and not every bias is negative or hurtful. 
      • It’s not recognizing biases that can lead to bad decisions at work, in life, and in relationships.
    • Although people have both explicit and implicit biases, the implicit ones are the most concerning because they are the ones we don’t recognize we have.
      • What Is Implicit Bias? 
        • The Kirwan Institute (for the study of race and ethnicity) at Ohio State University defines these biases as “the attitudes or stereotypes that affect our understanding, decisions and actions in an unconscious manner. These implicit biases we all hold do not necessarily align with our own declared beliefs.”
      • Is It Possible to Overcome Our Implicit Biases? 
        • Although we must be willing to identify and interrupt our own biases, we must also recognize and be willing to interrupt bias in others.
        • This is probably the most difficult and the most uncomfortable part of overcoming bias.
        • Research indicates that we tend to perceive anyone different from us as a threat because our brain tells us to do so.

    Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

    [genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from ABA]

    Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Deduced and Extracted Knowledge (EDEK).

    Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts.


    Authors of the genioux fact

    Fernando Machuca


    References




    ABOUT THE AUTHORS


    Karen Steinhauser is a practicing attorney, judge, and adjunct law professor at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law in Denver, Colorado. She presents workshops and seminars to lawyers and nonlawyers, government offices, and private businesses in the area of implicit/unconscious bias.


    Karen Steinhauser is a Judge, a trial lawyer, Adjunct Law School Professor and NITA Instructor.  She has practiced law for 39 years and has tried more than 250 jury trials. She has been recognized as a Super Lawyer from 2012-2019.  Karen has taught Evidence and Trial Advocacy as well as other substantive classes at the University of Denver Sturm College of Law for 29 years, and was the traveling mock trial coach for 17 years, leading the team to two National Championships.  She has been a faculty member for NITA for 29 years, serving as a Program Director for custom programs such as Trial Skills Programs, Deposition Programs, Fact Finding Programs and Mediation Programs, and has also served as Co-Program Director for NITA’s flagship National Trial Skills Program. 
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    Wednesday, December 16, 2020

    g-f(2)39 University of Oxford: Misinformation about basic issues in science and technology abounds




    Extra-condensed knowledge


    The Oxford Martin Programme on MISINFORMATION, SCIENCE AND MEDIA
    • Public understanding of key issues in science and technology is often limited and misinformation about basic issues in science and technology abounds.
    • In this three-year programme researchers from the Oxford Internet Institute and the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism are examining the interplay between systematic misinformation campaigns, news coverage, and increasingly important social media platforms for public understanding of science and technological innovation. 
    • The programme looks at the problem of “junk science”, “fake news” and public policy issues.


    Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image.


    The “genioux facts” Knowledge Big Picture (g-f KBP) chart


    Condensed knowledge 


    • The Oxford Martin Programme on MISINFORMATION, SCIENCE AND MEDIA
      • Public understanding of key issues in science and technology is often limited and misinformation about basic issues in science and technology abounds.
      • In this three-year programme researchers from the Oxford Internet Institute and the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism are examining the interplay between systematic misinformation campaigns, news coverage, and increasingly important social media platforms for public understanding of science and technological innovation. 
      • The programme looks at the problem of “junk science”, “fake news” and public policy issues.
      • Long-held scientific consensus on vital issues such as climate change or the vaccines is increasingly contested, heavily debated on social media and even in the mainstream news media. New technological innovations like artificial intelligence are discussed in terms that veer from the alarmist to the exuberant.
      • Our aim is to combine social science and computer science to address the damaging impact of computational propaganda and other forms of digitally‐enabled misinformation campaigns on scientific innovation, policy making, and public life.
      • We engage with stakeholders in journalism, the technology industry, the scientific community, and among policymakers in the search for evidence-based actionable interventions.
      • LATEST NEWS
        • Navigating the COVID-19 'infodemic' - how are people accessing news and information 
          • News use is up across all six countries (Argentina, Germany, South Korea, Spain, the UK and the US), and most people in most countries are using either social media, search engines, video sites, and messaging applications (or combinations of these) to get news and information about coronavirus.
        • COVID–19 has intensified concerns about misinformation. Here's what our past research says about these issues
        • UK media coverage of artificial intelligence dominated by industry and industry sources
          • UK media coverage of artificial intelligence is dominated by industry products, announcements and research, according to a new study by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism and the Oxford Martin Programme on Misinformation, Science and Media.
          • The factsheet, An Industry-Led Debate: How UK Media Cover Artificial Intelligence, is based on an analysis of eight months of reporting on AI, in six mainstream UK news outlets.
          • Nearly 60% of articles were focused on new industry products, announcements and initiatives that include AI, from smart phones or running shoes, to sex robots or brain preservation.
          • One third (33%) of articles were based on industry sources – mostly CEOs or other senior executives - six times as many as those from government and nearly twice as many as those from academia.
          • Media coverage of AI is being politicised: right-leaning news outlets highlight issues of economics and geopolitics; left-leaning news outlets highlight issues of ethics, including discrimination, algorithmic bias and privacy.


    Category 1, 2, 3 and 4: 

    1. A new, better world for everyone

    2. The Big Picture of the Digital Era

    3. The Big Picture of Sports

    4. Coronavirus and other viruses

    [genioux fact extracted from Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford]


    Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Based on a research. 


    Authors of the genioux fact

    Fernando Machuca


    References





    ABOUT THE AUTHORS


    The University of Oxford (legally The Chancellor, Masters and Scholars of the University of Oxford) is a collegiate research university in Oxford, Oxfordshire, England. There is evidence of teaching as early as 1096, making it the oldest university in the English-speaking world, the world's second-oldest university in continuous operation and one of the most prestigious academic institutions in the world. 

    The university is made up of 39 semi-autonomous constituent colleges, six permanent private halls, and a range of academic departments which are organised into four divisions. All the colleges are self-governing institutions within the university, each controlling its own membership and with its own internal structure and activities. All students are members of a college. It does not have a main campus, and its buildings and facilities are scattered throughout the city centre.

    Oxford operates the world's oldest university museum, as well as the largest university press in the world and the largest academic library system nationwide. In the fiscal year ending 31 July 2019, the university had a total income of £2.45 billion, of which £624.8 million was from research grants and contracts.

    Oxford has educated a wide range of notable alumni, including 28 prime ministers of the United Kingdom and many heads of state and government around the world. As of October 2020, 72 Nobel Prize laureates, 3 Fields Medalists, and 6 Turing Award winners have studied, worked, or held visiting fellowships at the University of Oxford, while its alumni have won 160 Olympic medals.

    The Oxford Martin School is a research and policy unit based in the Social Sciences Division of the University of Oxford. It was founded in June 2005 as the James Martin 21st Century School and is located in the original building of the Indian Institute. It is named after its benefactor, James Martin, author of the books The Wired Society and The Meaning of the 21st Century. Its Director is Charles Godfray, who took up the post in February 2018. Founding director of the School was Ian Goldin who held the post from September 2006 to September 2016.

    'Finding solutions to the world's most urgent problems' is the stated mission of the Oxford Martin School.
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    g-f(2)38 False rumors spread faster and wider than true information




    Extra-condensed knowledge


    MIT Sloan research about social media, misinformation, and elections
    • Over the last several years, MIT Sloan researchers have studied the spread of false information, or so-called fake news, described by researchers as “entirely fabricated and often partisan content presented as factual.” 
    • Understanding more about why people share misinformation, and how it spreads, leads to proposed solutions — a goal that becomes more important as people spend more time on social media platforms, and the connections between misinformation and election results become clearer.


    Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image.


    The “genioux facts” Knowledge Big Picture (g-f KBP) chart


    Condensed knowledge 


    • MIT Sloan research about social media, misinformation, and elections
      • Over the last several years, MIT Sloan researchers have studied the spread of false information, or so-called fake news, described by researchers as “entirely fabricated and often partisan content presented as factual.” 
      • Understanding more about why people share misinformation, and how it spreads, leads to proposed solutions — a goal that becomes more important as people spend more time on social media platforms, and the connections between misinformation and election results become clearer.
    • Problems
      • False rumors spread faster and wider than true information, according to a 2019 study published in Science by MIT Sloan professor Sinan Aral and Deb Roy and Soroush Vosoughi of the MIT Media Lab. 
      • They found falsehoods are 70% more likely to be retweeted on Twitter than the truth, and reach their first 1,500 people six times faster. This effect is more pronounced with political news than other categories. 
      • People are the ones hitting retweet on false information. 
      • People who share false information are more likely distracted or lazy, rather than biased, according to MIT Sloan professor David Rand and his co-author Gordon Pennycook. 
        • Their 2018 study asking people to rate the accuracy of news headlines on Facebook found that people who engage in more analytical thinking are more likely to discern true from false, regardless of their political views. 
      • Attaching warnings to social media posts that feature information disputed by fact-checkers can backfire. 
        • A study by Rand and his co-authors outlined a potential downfall to labeling misinformation online: the “implied truth effect,” where people assume all information without a label is true. Attaching verifications to some true headlines could be a possible fix.
      • Social media can also skew opinions because of what people don’t see.  
        • Another study by Rand and several co-authors looked at "information gerrymandering," or how people tend to live in partisan bubbles where they receive just a partial picture of how others feel about political issues. This can distort what people think about how others plan to vote — and even influence the outcome of elections.
    • Solutions
      • Aral and MIT Sloan professor Dean Eckles outlined a four-step plan for researchers to measure and analyze social media manipulation and turn that information into a defense against future interference. 
        • In brief: catalog exposure to social media manipulation; combine exposure and voter behavior datasets; assess the effectiveness of manipulative messages; and calculate consequences of voting behavior changes. 
        • In his new book “The Hype Machine,” Aral goes more in-depth, exploring the promise and peril of social media and how to protect society and democracy from its threats.
      • When asked directly, most people say it is important to share information that is accurate, according to a study co-authored by Rand. 
      • Yet people tend to share false information online because the social media context focuses their attention on factors other than truth and accuracy — not because they don’t care about the truth of what they are sharing. 
      • Advertising spreads fake news through methods like Facebook’s marketing tools, which allow advertisers to pay to target certain groups of people. 
        • A study co-authored by MIT Sloan marketing professor Catherine Tucker found a 75% reduction in fake news being shared after Facebook rolled out a new advertising system designed to intercept articles with fake news stories.


    Category 1, 2, 3 and 4: 

    1. A new, better world for everyone

    2. The Big Picture of the Digital Era

    3. The Big Picture of Sports

    4. Coronavirus and other viruses

    [genioux fact extracted from MIT Sloan School of Management]


    Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Based on a research. 


    Authors of the genioux fact

    Fernando Machuca


    References





    ABOUT THE AUTHORS



    Sara writes about management issues affecting global business leaders, with an emphasis on management science. Areas of interest include artificial intelligence, the digital economy, marketing, operations management, platforms, system dynamics, and supply chain. 

    Prior to MIT Sloan, Sara was a reporter and editor at the Vineyard Gazette on Martha's Vineyard. She has written for The Boston Globe and Martha's Vineyard Magazine, among other publications. She is a master's degree in journalism from Boston University and an undergraduate degree from the University of Washington.
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    Tuesday, December 15, 2020

    g-f(2)37 Cognitive decision biases influence decisions in damaging ways




    Extra-condensed knowledge


    Decision-making becomes most important in times of crisis
    • It also becomes more challenging, too, during periods of stress and most difficult when future outcomes are uncertain. 
    • One reason is because cognitive decision biases are likely to appear in highly changeable, high-stress environments, influencing decisions in damaging ways.
    • The field of behavioral economics, led by social psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, has identified a number of cognitive biases that affect decision-making — usually in a negative way. 
    • Wikipedia lists 124 decision-oriented biases.
    • By understanding our biases, we have a better chance of quieting them and moving toward better choices.


    Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image.


    The “genioux facts” Knowledge Big Picture (g-f KBP) chart


    Condensed knowledge 

    • Decision-making becomes most important in times of crisis.
      • It also becomes more challenging, too, during periods of stress and most difficult when future outcomes are uncertain. 
      • One reason is because cognitive decision biases are likely to appear in highly changeable, high-stress environments, influencing decisions in damaging ways.
    • Wikipedia lists 124 decision-oriented biases. 
      • The field of behavioral economics, led by social psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, has identified a number of cognitive biases that affect decision-making — usually in a negative way. 
      • There is no definitive list of such biases. 
      • It’s sobering to note all the ways in which human brains distort decision processes; perhaps it’s a wonder that any good decision is ever made.
    • Perhaps seeing these pointed out will improve decision processes for all of us — including politicians who make large-scale decisions affecting millions, business leaders who make decisions affecting their organizations and many stakeholders, and those who make decisions for themselves and their families.
    • Emotion-driven beliefs and intuition are powerful at guiding people toward less-than-optimal decisions. 
      • By understanding our biases, we have a better chance of quieting them and moving toward better choices.
    • Framing effect. 
      • One of the most powerful influences on any decision is how the issue to be decided is framed. 
      • Binary, either/or framing is often suboptimal. 
      • The very large and important issue of how to manage the virus in the U.S. is increasingly framed as a “save the economy or lock everything down” question.
    • Neglect of probability. 
      • Public health and epidemiology are probabilistic fields, as is the individual attempt to evade a microbe. 
      • No treatment or intervention can lower the relevant probability to zero or raise it to 100%; one can only lower or raise the probability within limits. 
      • Yet many lay people are uncomfortable with probabilistic thinking, and have a strong preference for absolute judgments.
    • Political bias. 
      • While the coronavirus has no politics, people do — and their politics affect how they interpret information and make decisions. 
    • Normalcy bias. 
      • Normalcy bias is the belief that things will continue to go as they have gone in the past, which leads to an unwillingness or inability to plan for unforeseen circumstances. 
    • Confirmation bias. 
      • One of the most common decision biases is confirmation bias, in which we search for and pay more heed to information that supports our own views. It’s a more generalized case of political bias. 
    • Hostile attribution bias. 
      • When others don’t agree with us in a time of high stress, we tend to attribute hostile intent to them. Assuming hostile intent, of course, only raises everyone’s stress levels. 


    Category 1, 2, 3 and 4: 

    1. A new, better world for everyone

    2. The Big Picture of the Digital Era

    3. The Big Picture of Sports

    4. Coronavirus and other viruses

    [genioux fact extracted from MIT SMR]


    Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

    • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Based on a research. 


    Authors of the genioux fact

    Fernando Machuca


    References




    ABOUT THE AUTHORS

    Thomas H. Davenport (@tdav) is the President’s Distinguished Professor of Information Technology and Management at Babson College, as well as a fellow at the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy and a senior adviser to Deloitte’s Analytics and Cognitive practice.


    Thomas Hayes "Tom" Davenport, Jr. is an American academic and author specializing in analytics, business process innovation, knowledge management, and artificial intelligence. He is currently the President’s Distinguished Professor in Information Technology and Management at Babson College, a Fellow of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, Co-founder of the International Institute for Analytics, and a Senior Advisor to Deloitte Analytics.

    Davenport has written, coauthored, or edited twenty books, including the first books on analytical competition, business process reengineering and achieving value from enterprise systems, and the best seller, Working Knowledge (with Larry Prusak) (Davenport & Prusak 2000), on knowledge management. He has written more than one hundred articles for such publications as Harvard Business Review, MIT Sloan Management Review, California Management Review, the Financial Times, and many other publications. Davenport has also been a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, CIO, InformationWeek, and Forbes magazines.
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