Wednesday, March 13, 2024

g-f(2)2075 Putin's Pyrrhic Victory: How Russia's War in Ukraine is Sabotaging Its Future

 

The Atlantic, Who is Vladimir Putin’s Revisionist History For?


genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and Claude



Introduction


In this insightful article, Andrei Kolesnikov explores how Russian President Vladimir Putin's pursuit of power and his war in Ukraine have hollowed out the country's resources, compromising its political, economic, and demographic future. Kolesnikov argues that Russia has deviated from the path of normality and modernization, embracing authoritarianism and demodernization instead.



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"Putin's costly war in Ukraine has laid a minefield under Russia's economic and demographic future, sacrificing the country's long-term prospects for his short-term political gains." — Fernando Machuca and Claude



genioux Foundational Fact


Russia's path to abnormality began with Putin's consolidation of power, which saw the dismantling of democratic institutions, the rise of repression, and the rejection of modernization efforts. The launch of the war in Ukraine further destroyed Russia's foundations, as Putin prioritized his imperial ambitions over the country's socioeconomic well-being and demographic sustainability.



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HARVARD Kennedy School, Russia-Ukraine War


  1. Russia's economy is increasingly dependent on government investment, with the military-industrial complex becoming the primary driver of growth.
  2. The demand for soldiers, coupled with the collapse of migrant inflows, is pitching Russia into a demographic crisis.
  3. Putin's regime has resorted to social expenditures and preferential treatment for the poor, turning Russia into a "Barbieland" focused on adaptation and survival rather than development.
  4. Russia effectively became a one-party state following the defeat of democratic parties in the 2003 parliamentary election.
  5. Attempts at authoritarian modernization under Medvedev and others ultimately failed due to a lack of political will.
  6. Putin's seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent war in Ukraine marked a rejection of the democratic heritage of Yeltsin and Gorbachev.
  7. Russia's market economy turned Russians into consumers without making them engaged citizens, leading to a disconnect between economic and political freedoms.
  8. Russia's birth rate has been falling since 2016-2017, with demographers predicting a significant reduction in the child population by 2027.
  9. The decline of the working-age population has caused a labor shortage, with forecasts suggesting a stagnation in the education level of the labor force by 2035.
  10. Putin's war is a fight against the future, sacrificing Russia's resources and potential for his own political survival.


NBC News, The 'stunning' scale of Russian deaths in Ukraine signals trouble ahead for Putin


Conclusion


Kolesnikov's article paints a grim picture of Russia's future under Putin's leadership. By prioritizing his own power and imperial ambitions over the country's modernization and socioeconomic well-being, Putin has set Russia on a path of demodernization and demographic decline. The war in Ukraine has further exacerbated these trends, laying a minefield under Russia's future prospects. As Kolesnikov suggests, Putin's actions reflect a "King Louis XV model of governance," where the consequences of his decisions will likely explode only after he has left the scene.



REFERENCE


Andrei Kolesnikov, Russia Is Burning Up Its Future, Foreign Affairs, March 7, 2024.



Andrei Kolesnikov


Andrei Kolesnikov is a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center¹. He has a particular research focus on ideological shifts inside Russian society¹. Before joining Carnegie in 2015, Kolesnikov worked for several leading Russian publications, including Novaya Gazeta, Izvestia, and The New Times¹. He has also published several books, including books about Anatoli Chubais¹.


Kolesnikov has been in Moscow since the war began and has written a series of deeply illuminating pieces for Foreign Affairs³. In December 2022, the Kremlin listed Kolesnikov as a foreign agent³. His insights and knowledge about the current situation in Russia are highly regarded¹.


Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/13/2024

(1) The End of the Russian Idea with Andrei Kolesnikov - Det .... https://udenrigspolitik.dk/arrangementer/the-end-of-the-russian-idea-with-andrei-kolesnikov/.

(2) Putin’s Fragile Compact With the Russian People. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/putins-fragile-compact-russian-people.

(3) A PAST THAT DIVIDES: RUSSIA’S NEW OFFICIAL HISTORY. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Article_Kolesnikov_102017_ENG_web.pdf.

(4) Andrey Kolesnikov (journalist) - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Kolesnikov_%28journalist%29.



The Telegraph, ‘The horror of war cannot be overstated’: Telegraph photographer reflects on a month in Ukraine


Claude's Summary


In his article "Russia Is Burning Up Its Future," Andrei Kolesnikov, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin's pursuit of power and his war in Ukraine have hollowed out the country's resources, compromising its political, economic, and demographic future. Kolesnikov asserts that Russia has deviated from the path of normality and modernization, embracing authoritarianism and demodernization instead.


Kolesnikov traces Russia's path to abnormality back to Putin's consolidation of power, which saw the dismantling of democratic institutions, the rise of repression, and the rejection of modernization efforts. He notes that attempts at authoritarian modernization under Medvedev and others ultimately failed due to a lack of political will. Putin's seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent war in Ukraine marked a decisive rejection of the democratic heritage of Yeltsin and Gorbachev.


The article highlights the increasing dependence of Russia's economy on government investment, with the military-industrial complex becoming the primary driver of growth. Kolesnikov also points out the demographic crisis facing Russia, exacerbated by the demand for soldiers and the collapse of migrant inflows. He argues that Putin's regime has resorted to social expenditures and preferential treatment for the poor, turning Russia into a "Barbieland" focused on adaptation and survival rather than development.


Kolesnikov discusses the disconnect between Russia's market economy and its political freedoms, noting that while Russians became consumers, they did not become engaged citizens. He also highlights the falling birth rate and the decline of the working-age population, which have caused labor shortages and are expected to lead to a stagnation in the education level of the labor force.


The article concludes by emphasizing that Putin's war is a fight against the future, sacrificing Russia's resources and potential for his own political survival. Kolesnikov suggests that Putin's actions reflect a "King Louis XV model of governance," where the consequences of his decisions will likely explode only after he has left the scene, leaving Russia to face the long-term consequences of his pursuit of power.



The categorization and citation of the genioux Fact post


Categorization


This genioux Fact post is classified as Breaking Knowledge which means: Insights for comprehending the forces molding our world and making sense of news and trends.



Type: Breaking Knowledge, Free Speech



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References


genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)2075, Fernando Machuca and ClaudeMarch 13, 2024, Genioux.com Corporation.
 
The genioux facts program has established a robust foundation of over 2074 Big Picture of the Digital Age posts [g-f(2)1 - g-f(2)2074].



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