Thursday, December 14, 2023

g-f(2)1711 IMF Warns of Cold War II Costs Absent United Front on Shared Gains


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IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath's speech "Cold War II? Preserving Economic Cooperation Amid Geoeconomic Fragmentation" discusses intensifying geopolitical realignments fracturing global trade and investment flows, analyzing historical precedents, emerging trends, projected impact, and principles to preserve cooperation.

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"While not amounting to outright "deglobalization," hardening geopolitical fault lines threaten Cold War II-style fragmentation that could forfeit immense economic gains from openness and prove incapable of confronting shared crises." — Fernando Machuca and Claude

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Gopinath argues pragmatic solutions minimizing divisions must reinforce mutual gains, target interventions, and curb unilateral actions to avoid "mutually assured economic destruction" from severed interdependencies built over decades.

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  1. Current tensions mirror ideological divisions of the 20th century Cold War despite greater trade integration increasing rupture costs.
  2. Slowing trade growth between blocs outpaces within blocs as security anxieties shape national policies.
  3. Supply chain analyses reveal lengthening over reshoring alongside grafting indirect links as decoupling proves elusive.
  4. Modeling suggests blocs eliminating trade could suffer GDP losses approaching 8% concentrated in developing economies.
  5. Keeping climate and medical supply chains intact via cooperation could mitigate global disaster threats.
  6. Regional agreements and multilateral initiatives may balance security priorities with scale efficiencies.
  7. Politicians must compare industrial policy effectiveness against market distortions when intervening.
  8. Without course correcting the trajectory risks reversal of poverty alleviation and billions in forfeited growth.
  9. Non-aligned emerging powers like India can choose strategic neutrality to benefit from trade diversions.
  10. The Cold War witnessed some discordant cooperation; similar enlightenment on economic dangers may encourage restraint.


By underscoring the immense cosmos of common gains beyond zero-sum squabbles, Gopinath calls for channels of communication and enlightened self-interest to keep integration's proven prosperity within reach.


The GK Speech

Cold War II? Preserving Economic Cooperation Amid Geoeconomic Fragmentation

Plenary Speech by IMF First Managing Deputy Director Gita Gopinath

20th World Congress of the International Economic Association


December 11, 2023

Gita Gopinath

Gita Gopinath is the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a position she assumed on January 21, 2022¹². In this role, she oversees the work of staff, represents the Fund at multilateral forums, maintains high-level contacts with member governments and Board members, the media, and other institutions¹². She also leads the Fund’s work on surveillance and related policies, and oversees research and flagship publications¹².

Before her current role, Gopinath served as the Chief Economist of the IMF from 2019 to 2022². Prior to joining the IMF, she had a two-decade-long career as an academic, including at the economics department of Harvard University where she was the John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Economics². She was also an assistant professor at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business².

Gopinath was born on December 8, 1971, in Kolkata, India². She received a B.A. degree from Lady Shri Ram College for Women of the University of Delhi in 1992 and an M.A. degree in economics from Delhi School of Economics, also of the University of Delhi, in 1994². She further completed an M.A. degree at the University of Washington in 1996². She earned her Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University in 2001²..

Source: Conversation with Bing, 12/14/2023

(1) Gita Gopinath - IMF.

(2) Gita Gopinath - Wikipedia.

(3) Gita Gopinath to take on new role at IMF as First Deputy Managing Director.

(4) Getty Images.

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Source: Conversation with Bing, 11/27/2023

(1) “genioux facts”:.

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Source: Conversation with Bing, 11/27/2023

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