Friday, September 27, 2024

g-f(2)2964 BRICS at a Crossroads: Shaping the Future of Global Order

 


genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and Perplexity


Introduction:


The Foreign Affairs article "The Battle for the BRICS" by Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel provides a comprehensive analysis of the BRICS group's evolution, its growing influence in the global order, and the internal tensions shaping its future. The article explores how BRICS has become a significant platform for countries seeking alternatives to Western-dominated institutions and how it reflects the shift towards a multipolar world order.



genioux GK Nugget:


"BRICS embodies the tension between reforming and challenging the existing global order, reflecting the complex dynamics of an emerging multipolar world."  — Fernando Machuca and Perplexity, September 27, 2024



genioux Foundational Fact:


BRICS has evolved from an economic acronym to a significant geopolitical grouping, representing 35.6% of global GDP and 45% of the world's population. Its expansion and growing influence reflect a broader shift towards multipolarity in global affairs. However, the group faces internal tensions between members seeking to reform the existing global order (like Brazil and India) and those aiming to create an alternative, anti-Western bloc (like China and Russia). This internal struggle will shape not only the future of BRICS but also the broader contours of the emerging global order.



The 10 most relevant genioux Facts:


  1. BRICS has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, with Saudi Arabia participating informally, significantly increasing its global economic and demographic weight.
  2. The group serves as an alternative platform for countries frustrated with Western-dominated global financial institutions and seeking greater autonomy in international affairs.
  3. Russia and China are positioning BRICS as a counterweight to Western influence, aiming to undermine aspects of the current U.S.-led global order.
  4. Brazil and India maintain a more nonaligned stance, seeking to reform rather than replace existing global institutions.
  5. China has emerged as the driving force behind BRICS expansion, reflecting its ambition to lead a strong, sizable bloc in the international arena.
  6. The group's focus on de-dollarization and creating alternative financial systems reflects members' desire to reduce vulnerability to Western sanctions.
  7. BRICS membership offers countries increased leverage in negotiations with Western powers and deeper ties with China and other emerging economies.
  8. The recent expansion of BRICS may dilute its cohesiveness and exacerbate internal tensions between anti-Western and nonaligned factions.
  9. Many countries in the Global South view BRICS as a means to navigate an increasingly multipolar world without fully aligning with either Western or anti-Western blocs.
  10. The future direction of BRICS will significantly impact the evolution of the global order, potentially accelerating the shift towards multipolarity.



Conclusion:


The battle for the future of BRICS reflects broader global dynamics as the world transitions from U.S.-led unipolarity to multipolarity. While the group faces internal tensions between reformist and revisionist agendas, it remains an attractive platform for countries seeking to navigate this changing landscape. The evolution of BRICS will play a crucial role in shaping the emerging global order, potentially accelerating the decline of Western dominance and fostering a more diverse international system. As such, understanding the complexities and implications of BRICS' development is essential for policymakers, analysts, and anyone interested in the future of global governance.



REFERENCES

The g-f GK Context


Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel, The Battle for the BRICS, Foreign Affairs, September 24, 2024.


ABOUT THE AUTHORS


Alexander Gabuev is the Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

Oliver Stuenkel is an Associate Professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas in São Paulo and a Visiting Scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.



Classical Summary of the Article:


The Foreign Affairs article "The Battle for the BRICS" by Alexander Gabuev and Oliver Stuenkel provides a comprehensive analysis of the BRICS group's evolution and its growing influence in the global order. Key points include:


  1. BRICS has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, with Saudi Arabia participating informally. The group now represents 35.6% of the global GDP and 45% of the world's population.
  2. The group serves as an alternative platform for countries seeking greater autonomy from Western-dominated institutions and reflects the shift towards a multipolar world order.
  3. There's an internal divide within BRICS: Russia and China position it as a counterweight to Western influence, while Brazil and India maintain a more nonaligned stance, seeking to reform rather than replace existing global institutions.
  4. China has emerged as the driving force behind BRICS expansion, reflecting its ambition to lead a strong, sizable bloc in the international arena.
  5. The group's focus on de-dollarization and creating alternative financial systems reflects members' desire to reduce vulnerability to Western sanctions.
  6. BRICS membership offers countries increased leverage in negotiations with Western powers and deeper ties with China and other emerging economies.
  7. The recent expansion may dilute BRICS' cohesiveness and exacerbate internal tensions between anti-Western and nonaligned factions.
  8. Many countries in the Global South view BRICS as a means to navigate an increasingly multipolar world without fully aligning with either Western or anti-Western blocs.


The article concludes that while BRICS faces internal challenges, it remains an attractive platform for countries seeking to navigate the changing global landscape. The group's evolution will play a crucial role in shaping the emerging multipolar order, potentially accelerating the decline of Western dominance in global affairs.



Alexander Gabuev


Alexander Gabuev is the Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, based in Berlin. He leads a renowned team of analysts who were formerly part of the Carnegie Moscow Center, which was forced to close by the Kremlin in early 2022 after nearly three decades of operation³.


Alexander's research focuses on Russia’s policy toward East and Southeast Asia, political and ideological trends in China, and China’s relations with its neighbors, especially those in Central Asia². He is a senior fellow and the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center².


Throughout his career, Alexander has been dedicated to providing in-depth analysis and insights on geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the context of Russia and its interactions with Asia. His expertise and leadership have made him a respected figure in the field of international relations and geopolitical studies.


²: [Alexander Gabuev - Davis Center](https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/about/people/alexander-gabuev)

³: [State of Asia with Alexander Gabuev](https://asiasociety.org/node/42545/state-asia-alexander-gabuev)


Source: Conversation with Copilot, 9/27/2024


(1) State of Asia with Alexander Gabuev. https://asiasociety.org/node/42545/state-asia-alexander-gabuev.

(2) Alexander Gabuev - Davis Center. https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/about/people/alexander-gabuev.

(3) Alexander Gabuev - Davis Center. https://bing.com/search?q=Alexander+Gabuev+biography.

(4) All work from Alexander Gabuev - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/people/alexander-gabuev?lang=en.



Oliver Stuenkel


Oliver Stuenkel is a distinguished German-Brazilian political scientist and writer, currently serving as an Associate Professor at the School of International Relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) in São Paulo, Brazil². He is also a Visiting Scholar affiliated with the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace².


Oliver's research primarily focuses on rising powers and their impact on global governance. He has authored several influential books on emerging powers and global politics, including "BRICS and the Future of Global Order" (2015) and "Post-Western World" (2016)⁴. His work provides valuable insights into the shifting dynamics of global power and the role of emerging economies in shaping the future of international relations.


In addition to his academic and research roles, Oliver is a columnist for Americas Quarterly (AQ) and Estadão, where he regularly shares his expertise on international affairs². He is also a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC, and a non-resident Fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin⁵.


Oliver holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Valencia, a Master of Public Policy from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, where he was a McCloy Scholar, and a PhD in Political Science from the University of Duisburg-Essen¹.


His extensive academic background, combined with his practical experience and thought leadership, make Oliver Stuenkel a respected and influential figure in the field of international relations and global governance.


¹: [Oliver Stuenkel – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre](https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Stuenkel)

²: [Oliver Stuenkel - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace](https://carnegieendowment.org/people/oliver-stuenkel?lang=en)

⁴: [Oliver Stuenkel - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Stuenkel)

⁵: [About - Oliver Stuenkel](https://www.oliverstuenkel.com/about/)


Source: Conversation with Copilot, 9/27/2024


(1) Oliver Stuenkel - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/people/oliver-stuenkel?lang=en.

(2) Oliver Stuenkel - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Stuenkel.

(3) About - Oliver Stuenkel. https://www.oliverstuenkel.com/about/.

(4) Oliver Stuenkel – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre. https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Stuenkel.

(5) Oliver Stuenkel - The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/authors/oliver-stuenkel/.

(6) en.wikipedia.org. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver_Stuenkel.



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Categorization


This genioux Fact post is classified as Breaking Knowledge which means: Insights for comprehending the forces molding our world and making sense of news and trends.


Type: Breaking Knowledge, Free Speech



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REFERENCES



“genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)2964, Fernando Machuca and Perplexity, September 27, 2024, Genioux.com Corporation.


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