Friday, February 19, 2021

g-f(2)129 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, WSJ, Marty Makary, We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April.


VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news




Extra-condensed knowledge


  • Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. 
    • If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
    • In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.
  • Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
    • Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
    • There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. 
  • At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.


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Condensed knowledge 


  • Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
    • My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. 
    • Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. 

Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

[genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from WSJ]

Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Deduced and Extracted Knowledge (EDEK).

Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

  • Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Supported by research.


Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca


References




ABOUT THE AUTHORS


Dr. Marty Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”


Martin "Marty" Makary is an American surgeon, New York Times bestselling author, and Johns Hopkins health policy expert. 
  • He has written for The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, TIME, Newsweek, and CNN, and appears on NBC and Fox News. 
  • He is the author of The Price We Pay, a book about how business leaders and families can lower their health care costs and the grass-roots movement to restore medicine to its mission. 
  • Dr. Makary practices surgical oncology and gastrointestinal surgery at the Johns Hopkins Hospital and teaches public health policy at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. 
  • Makary works in health care innovation, quality measurement science, frail and vulnerable populations, and public health disparities. 
  • He served in leadership roles at the United Nations World Health Organization for the Safe Surgery Saves Lives initiative. 
  • Makary was named one of the most influential people in healthcare by Health Magazine. 
  • In 2018, Makary was elected to the National Academy of Medicine.

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