Saturday, September 28, 2024

g-f(2)2978 Xi Jinping’s Strategic Blunder: Pursuing Power Before Wealth

 


genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT


Introduction


China’s rapid ascent on the global stage has been fueled by its significant economic and military growth. However, recent developments under Xi Jinping’s leadership suggest a strategic shift that prioritizes power over economic prosperity. In his quest to establish China as a superpower, Xi has placed emphasis on military expansion and global influence, but this decision may have led China into a strategic dilemma: becoming powerful before becoming rich. The article explores whether China’s current path, focusing on competition with the United States and de-emphasizing economic reform, could hinder its long-term stability and prosperity.



genioux GK Nugget


"China's focus on becoming powerful before becoming rich could undermine its future economic growth and superpower status, as strategic military ambitions clash with the need for economic reform." — Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT, September 28, 2024



genioux Foundational Fact


Xi Jinping’s emphasis on military power and global competition has shifted China’s focus away from the economic reforms that were crucial during the era of Deng Xiaoping. By prioritizing military strength before reaching high-income status, Xi risks stunting China’s economic potential and inviting greater resistance from global powers, notably the United States. This strategic blunder could impede China’s long-term economic stability and ability to sustain its military growth.



The 10 Most Relevant genioux Facts


  1. Power vs. Wealth Dilemma: Xi Jinping’s China faces a classic trade-off between military power and economic growth. The prioritization of "guns" (military) over "butter" (economic prosperity) risks long-term economic decline.
  2. Deng’s Economic Legacy: Deng Xiaoping’s strategy focused on economic reform and keeping a low profile internationally to build wealth. Xi’s abandonment of this strategy represents a significant shift in China’s approach to global power.
  3. Economic Slump: China’s economic growth rate has slowed significantly in recent years, from an average of 8.6% in the early 2010s to a projected 3.3% by 2029, exacerbating the challenge of becoming a high-income economy.
  4. China’s Military Spending: China’s defense budget is significant, but still only 2% of its GDP—far less than Cold War spending levels in Washington or Moscow. However, China’s offensive military developments, such as hypersonic missiles and aircraft carriers, heighten threat perceptions globally.
  5. Western "Derisking": As China pursues superpower status, the U.S. and its allies have responded with economic derisking measures, limiting China’s access to markets, technology, and capital, which are essential for long-term growth.
  6. Economic Openness: Xi’s increasing focus on military and geopolitical competition has led to reduced economic openness and shrinking ties with global markets, threatening China’s future economic prospects.
  7. Aging Population and Economic Pressure: China’s demographic challenges—including an aging population and rising youth unemployment—compound the difficulties in maintaining sustainable economic growth.
  8. China’s Economic Transition: China’s model, dominated by state investment (over 40% of GDP), contrasts sharply with high-income economies like Japan and South Korea, where consumer spending plays a larger role in driving growth.
  9. Global Perception of Threat: China’s military advancements, particularly in naval and offensive capabilities, have shifted global perceptions of China from a rising economic power to a potential military threat, further straining international relations.
  10. Missed Strategic Opportunity: Had Xi focused on continued economic reform, emphasizing defensive military capabilities and maintaining global economic integration, China might have had more time to grow its economy without triggering as much geopolitical resistance.



Conclusion


China’s rise as a global superpower, under Xi Jinping’s leadership, has prioritized power over economic prosperity, leading to a strategic dilemma. By focusing too early on global competition and military expansion, China risks stalling its economic progress, complicating its path to high-income status, and provoking resistance from global powers. As China grapples with internal economic challenges and growing international isolation, the need to balance power and wealth remains critical for its future stability and growth.



REFERENCES

The g-f GK Context


Jo Inge Bekkevold, China Has Become Powerful Before It Is Rich, Foreign Policy (FP), September 24, 2024.



ABOUT THE AUTHOR


Jo Inge Bekkevold is a senior China fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies and a former Norwegian diplomat.



Classical Summary of the Article:


The article “China Has Become Powerful Before It Is Rich” by Jo Inge Bekkevold examines the strategic shift in China’s development under Xi Jinping, contrasting it with the approach of former leader Deng Xiaoping. Deng emphasized economic growth through market reforms and advocated for keeping a low profile internationally, allowing China to build wealth before asserting global influence. Xi Jinping, however, has prioritized military strength and geopolitical competition, moving away from Deng's vision. As a result, China has become a global power, but its economic growth is stalling, leaving it with a gross national income (GNI) per capita far below that of developed nations.


The article highlights two key dilemmas China faces: the guns-butter-growth trade-off, where a nation must balance military spending, welfare, and economic investment, and the guns-butter-openness dilemma. Xi's focus on military expansion and reduced economic openness has strained China’s ties with global markets, especially as the West and emerging economies adopt derisking strategies to limit dependency on China. This is happening just as China's economic growth slows, exacerbated by a rapidly aging population, rising unemployment, and unresolved structural imbalances. Xi's decision to prioritize power over prosperity could have long-term consequences, potentially stifling China's path to becoming a high-income nation and undermining its global influence. The article suggests that a more balanced approach could have allowed China to strengthen its economy while mitigating global concerns over its rise.



Jo Inge Bekkevold


Jo Inge Bekkevold is a distinguished senior China fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) and a former Norwegian diplomat. Born in 1968, he has a rich academic and professional background that has significantly contributed to his expertise in international relations and Asian security.


Early Life and Education

Jo Inge Bekkevold earned his cand.polit. degree with a major in political science from the University of Oslo in 2001¹. He furthered his studies in international relations at Peking University from 1994 to 1996, which laid the foundation for his deep understanding of Chinese geopolitics¹.


Diplomatic Career

Bekkevold joined the Norwegian Foreign Service in 1999. He served as a political officer at Norway's embassy in Hanoi from 2001 to 2005¹. Following this, he was stationed at Norway's embassy in Beijing, where he served as a political officer and later as a counsellor/minister counsellor from 2005 to 2011¹.


Academic and Research Contributions

At the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Bekkevold heads the Centre for Asian Security Studies. His research focuses on China's rise, Asian security, and China's relations with Russia and India¹⁴. He has coordinated the international workshop series "International Order at Sea" and participated in the AsiArctic project, which explores Asian countries' interests and policies in the Arctic¹.


Bekkevold has also contributed to numerous publications, including co-editing the book "China in the Era of Xi Jinping: Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges"⁴. His work is widely recognized for its depth and insight into the geopolitical dynamics of Asia.


Personal Life and Philosophy

Jo Inge Bekkevold's career reflects his commitment to understanding and addressing the complexities of international relations, particularly in the context of China's growing influence. His diplomatic and academic endeavors continue to shape the discourse on Asian security and global geopolitics.


¹: [Norwegian Armed Forces](https://www.forsvaret.no/en/research/staff/bekkevold-jo-inge)

⁴: [Springer](https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/978-1-137-58663-6)


Source: Conversation with Copilot, 9/28//2024


(1) Bekkevold, Jo Inge - Norwegian Armed Forces - Forsvaret. https://www.forsvaret.no/en/research/staff/bekkevold-jo-inge.

(2) International Order at Sea: How it is challenged. How it is maintained .... https://link.springer.com/book/10.1057/978-1-137-58663-6.

(3) Jo Inge Bekkevold | NUPI. https://www.nupi.no/en/about-nupi/employees/external/jo-inge-bekkevold.

(4) Bekkevold, Jo Inge - Norwegian Armed Forces - Forsvaret. https://bing.com/search?q=Jo+Inge+Bekkevold+biography.

(5) Jo Inge Bekkevold – PRIO Blogs - Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://blogs.prio.org/author/jo-inge-bekkevold/.



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REFERENCES



“genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)2978, Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT, September 28, 2024, Genioux.com Corporation.


The genioux facts program has established a robust foundation of over 2977 Big Picture of the Digital Age posts [g-f(2)1 - g-f(2)2977].



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