g-f(2)2704 Electoral Fraud Unveiled: Maduro's Tactics in the Venezuelan Election

 

genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and Perplexity

Introduction:

The CSIS article "Can Maduro Pull off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?" by Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy provides a detailed examination of the Venezuelan election under Nicolás Maduro's regime. It highlights the extensive measures taken by the regime to manipulate the electoral process and maintain power, offering valuable insights into the mechanics of electoral fraud and the challenges faced by opposition movements in authoritarian contexts.

genioux GK Nugget:

"Electoral fraud in authoritarian regimes requires not just manipulation of votes, but also control of narratives, international perceptions, and security forces to cement illegitimate power." — Fernando Machuca and Perplexity, August 2, 2024

genioux Foundational Fact:

The Maduro regime's attempt to steal the Venezuelan election demonstrates the complex nature of modern electoral fraud, involving pre-election suppression, vote manipulation, control of information, and post-election consolidation of power. This case study underscores the importance of opposition preparedness, international scrutiny, and the role of security forces in determining the success or failure of such fraudulent efforts.

The 10 most relevant genioux Facts:

1. Pre-Election Manipulation: The regime barred opposition candidates, harassed and persecuted opposition members, and imposed new restrictions on election observers.
2. Vote Manipulation: The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced results that contradicted polls and exit polls, suggesting significant vote tampering.
3. Control of Information: The regime blocked access to opposition tally sheets and removed vote tabulations from polling centers at gunpoint.
4. International Recognition: The regime's legitimacy heavily depends on recognition from influential regional powers like Colombia and Brazil.
5. Security Forces' Role: The loyalty of security forces is crucial for regime continuity, with the potential for military defection posing a significant threat to Maduro's power.
6. Street-Level Protests: Sustained protests are essential for the opposition to counter the regime's narrative and maintain international attention.
7. Migration Concerns: Neighboring countries fear a new wave of mass migration if Maduro consolidates power, influencing their stance on the election.
8. Autocratic Legalism: Maduro leverages "autocratic legalism" to promote his victory narrative and suppress opposition.
9. Fabrication of Vote Tabulations: The regime faces significant challenges in fabricating convincing vote tabulations to support its claimed victory.
10. International Scrutiny: Reports from international observers like the Carter Center and the OAS are critical in documenting electoral abuses and challenging the regime's legitimacy.

Conclusion:

The analysis of Venezuela's recent election provides crucial insights into the complex nature of modern electoral fraud in authoritarian regimes. It underscores the importance of opposition preparedness, international scrutiny, and the role of security forces in determining the outcome of such attempts. This knowledge is invaluable for understanding and potentially countering similar situations in other contexts, highlighting the ongoing challenges to democracy in the face of determined authoritarian manipulation.

REFERENCES

The g-f GK Context

Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Can Maduro Pull off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), August 1, 2024.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Ryan C. Berg is director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also an adjunct professor at the Catholic University of America and visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme. His research focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations, authoritarian regimes, armed conflict, strategic competition, and trade and development issues. He also studies Latin America’s criminal groups and the region’s governance and security challenges.

Christopher Hernandez-Roy is the deputy director and senior fellow of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Throughout his more than 25-year career, Mr. Hernandez-Roy has worked extensively to advance democratic governance, prevent and resolve conflict, strengthen the rule of law, respect human rights, ensure citizen security, and promote integral development across Latin America and the Caribbean. He has held various senior leadership positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), having served as a senior political adviser to two secretaries general.

Classical Summary of the Article:

Based on the CSIS article "Can Maduro Pull off the Mother of All Electoral Frauds?" by Ryan C. Berg and Christopher Hernandez-Roy, here's a summary of the key points:

1. The article discusses the recent Venezuelan election, describing it as "one of the most brazen thefts in modern Latin American history".
2. Opposition leader María Corina Machado had predicted only two possible outcomes: "a landslide victory or an obscene fraud".
3. The Maduro regime engaged in various tactics to manipulate the election:
• Barring opposition candidates from running
• Harassing and persecuting opposition members
• Imposing new restrictions on election observers
• Limiting voting access for Venezuelans abroad
• Revoking invitations to international observers
4. The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced Maduro's victory with 51.2% of the vote, contradicting polls and exit polls that showed a significant lead for the opposition candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia.
5. The opposition claims to have over 80% of voter tally printouts showing González won with 6,275,130 votes to Maduro's 2,759,256.
6. The regime is attempting to cement "facts on the ground" by insisting on the CNE's narrative and escalating repression against protesters.
7. The article discusses the importance of international recognition, particularly from Colombia and Brazil, in legitimizing or challenging Maduro's claimed victory.
8. The authors highlight the challenges Maduro faces in fabricating convincing vote tabulations to support his claimed victory.
9. The role of security forces is crucial, with the article discussing the potential for military defection or continued support for Maduro.
10. The opposition is urged to maintain street-level protests and leverage international reports questioning the election's integrity to counter Maduro's narrative.

The article concludes that the opposition's ability to present true facts and maintain pressure could prevent Maduro from solidifying his fraudulent victory.

Ryan C. Berg

Ryan C. Berg is the director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)¹. He is also an adjunct professor at the Catholic University of America and a visiting research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Changing Character of War Programme¹².

Dr. Berg's research focuses on U.S.-Latin America relations, authoritarian regimes, armed conflict, strategic competition, and trade and development issues¹². He has a particular interest in Latin America’s criminal groups and the region’s governance and security challenges¹².

Before joining CSIS, Dr. Berg was a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where he helped lead its Latin America Studies Program¹². He has also served as a research consultant to the World Bank, a Fulbright scholar in Brazil, and a visiting doctoral fellow at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland¹².

Dr. Berg has lived and worked in Peru and Brazil and is an expert member of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime and the Urban Violence Research Network¹². His work has been published in various peer-reviewed academic and policy-oriented journals, including The Lancet, Migration and Development, the SAIS Review of International Affairs, and the Georgetown Security Studies Review¹². In the popular press, his articles have appeared in outlets such as CNN.com, Foreign Policy, Los Angeles Times, Newsweek, The Hill, World Politics Review, the National Interest, and RealClearWorld¹².

Dr. Berg has appeared on Voice of America and National Public Radio and has testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee¹². He holds a Ph.D. and an M.Phil. in political science and an M.Sc. in global governance and diplomacy from the University of Oxford, where he was a Senior Hulme fellow¹². He also holds a B.A. in government and theology from Georgetown University¹². Dr. Berg is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese and has a working knowledge of French and Slovenian¹².

¹: [CSIS](https://www.csis.org/people/ryan-c-berg)

²: [USCC](https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/Ryan_Berg_Bio.pdf)

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 8/2/2024

(1) Ryan C. Berg - Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/people/ryan-c-berg.

(2) Ryan Berg, Ph.D. - uscc.gov. https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/Ryan_Berg_Bio.pdf.

(3) Ryan Berg, Ph.D. | Washington, D.C. | Department of Politics - The .... https://politics.catholic.edu/faculty-and-research/faculty-profiles/berg-ryan/index.html.

(4) Dr. Ryan Berg - FMSOFMSO. https://fmso.tradoc.army.mil/about/part-time-staff/dr-ryan-berg/.

(5) Biography - House. https://docs.house.gov/meetings/FA/FA07/20210303/111266/HHRG-117-FA07-Bio-BergPhDR-20210303.pdf.

Christopher Hernandez-Roy

Christopher Hernandez-Roy is the deputy director and senior fellow of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)¹. With over 25 years of experience, he has dedicated his career to advancing democratic governance, preventing and resolving conflicts, strengthening the rule of law, respecting human rights, ensuring citizen security, and promoting integral development across Latin America and the Caribbean¹.

Mr. Hernandez-Roy has held various senior leadership positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), where he served as a senior political adviser to two secretaries general¹. In this capacity, he documented the abuses of authoritarian regimes in Venezuela and Cuba and co-led efforts to hold the Venezuelan regime accountable for possible crimes against humanity¹. He also directed two OAS departments focused on advancing and defending democracy and building the hemispheric security agenda¹.

Throughout his career, Mr. Hernandez-Roy has managed several donor-funded projects focused on security sector reform across the Americas, oversaw the OAS's political analysis system, supervised the Mission to Support the Peace Process in Colombia, and negotiated the establishment of the Mission to Support the Fight Against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras¹. He was also intimately involved in the peaceful resolution of border disputes between Honduras and Nicaragua, Belize and Guatemala, and Honduras and El Salvador¹.

More recently, Mr. Hernandez-Roy served as a citizen security and international development consultant for Creative Associates International¹. Early in his career, he worked for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police in Ottawa, Canada¹.

Mr. Hernandez-Roy holds a BA honors degree in history from Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada, and an MPhil degree in international relations from the University of Cambridge, England¹. He is a native English speaker and is fluent in Spanish and French¹.

¹: [CSIS](https://www.csis.org/people/christopher-hernandez-roy)

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 8/2/2024

(1) Christopher Hernandez-Roy - CSIS. https://www.csis.org/people/christopher-hernandez-roy.

(2) Christopher Hernández-Roy. https://bing.com/search?q=Christopher+Hernandez-Roy+biography.

(3) Christopher Hernandez-Roy (@CHernandezRoy) / Twitter. https://twitter.com/CHernandezRoy.

(4) Ryan C. Berg - CSIS. https://www.csis.org/people/ryan-c-berg.

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization and think tank based in Washington, D.C. It was founded in 1962 by Admiral Arleigh Burke and David Manker Abshire at Georgetown University¹³. The institution was established during the height of the Cold War with the goal of finding ways for the United States to survive as a nation and prosper as a people³.

CSIS conducts policy studies and strategic analyses of political, economic, and security issues throughout the world, with a focus on international relations, trade, technology, finance, energy, and geostrategy¹. The center is known for its in-depth research and analysis, which aims to provide strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decision-makers².

Over the years, CSIS has grown to become one of the most influential think tanks in the world. It has been ranked as the number one think tank in the United States across all fields and the top defense and national security think tank globally¹. The center is officially a bipartisan organization, hosting scholars and experts from across the political spectrum¹.

CSIS is also known for its various programs and initiatives, including the Statesmen's Forum, which provides a platform for international leaders to present their views, and the CSIS-Schieffer School Dialogues, a series of discussions hosted by Bob Schieffer of CBS News¹. The center's work is widely respected and has a significant impact on policy-making and public discourse.

¹: [CSIS](https://www.csis.org/)

²: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Strategic_and_International_Studies)

³: [About CSIS](https://www.csis.org/about)

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 8/2/2024

(1) Center for Strategic and International Studies - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Strategic_and_International_Studies.

(2) About CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/about.

(3) CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/.

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REFERENCES

“genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)2704, Fernando Machuca and Perplexity, August 2, 2024, Genioux.com Corporation.

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