Wednesday, June 5, 2024

g-f(2)2468 Navigating AI's Future: Four Scenarios and Their Implications


genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT


In the video "Wharton professor: 4 scenarios for AI’s future," Ethan Mollick, a professor at the Wharton School, discusses the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on society and work. He explores the evolution of AI, particularly the significance of large language models, and outlines four potential future scenarios for AI development. Mollick emphasizes the importance of embracing AI's capabilities while being mindful of its limitations and societal implications.

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"Artificial intelligence's potential lies in its ability to significantly enhance human creativity, productivity, and decision-making, provided we learn to harness its capabilities effectively and ethically." —  Fernando Machuca and ChatGPT, June 5, 2024

genioux Foundational Fact

Ethan Mollick highlights that AI, particularly through advancements in large language models, is a general-purpose technology capable of transforming multiple aspects of society and work. He outlines four future scenarios for AI development: a static world, linear growth, exponential growth, and the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI). Mollick underscores the necessity for individuals and organizations to adapt to and integrate AI thoughtfully to leverage its benefits while mitigating risks.

The 10 Most Relevant genioux Facts

  1. AI's Evolution: AI has evolved from simple predictive algorithms to sophisticated large language models capable of understanding and generating human-like text.
  2. Breakthrough Paper: The 2017 paper "Attention is All You Need" introduced the attention mechanism, enabling AI to consider the context of entire sentences, significantly improving its performance.
  3. General-Purpose Models: Large language models are general-purpose technologies, akin to steam power or the internet, capable of revolutionizing various sectors.
  4. Four Future Scenarios: Mollick identifies four potential AI futures: static development, linear growth, exponential growth, and the emergence of AGI.
  5. Doubling Time: The current doubling time for AI capabilities is every five to nine months, suggesting rapid advancements.
  6. Workplace Impact: Studies indicate that AI can enhance performance by 20-80% across various fields, including consulting, legal, marketing, and programming.
  7. AI and Creativity: AI can significantly boost human creativity by providing diverse perspectives and innovative suggestions.
  8. Hallucination and Trust: AI's tendency to produce plausible but incorrect information, known as "hallucination," requires users to develop intuition and critical thinking.
  9. Societal Decision-Making: The future of AI is not predetermined; it depends on societal choices regarding its use, regulation, and integration.
  10. Personal and Organizational Adaptation: Individuals and organizations must proactively learn to work with AI to maximize its benefits and minimize potential drawbacks.


Ethan Mollick's insights into the future of AI underscore its profound potential to reshape society and work. By understanding and adapting to AI's capabilities, individuals and organizations can harness this technology to enhance creativity, productivity, and decision-making. The future scenarios Mollick presents remind us that the trajectory of AI development depends significantly on our choices and actions today.


The g-f GK Context

Wharton professor: 4 scenarios for AI’s future | Ethan Mollick for Big Think+Big ThinkYouTube channel, May 29, 2024.

  • Wharton professor Ethan Mollick explains why “co-intelligence” may be the future of AI.
  • Ethan Mollick, professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and author of "Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI," explores the impact of AI on our work, creative endeavors, and overall lives.

Classical Summary of the Context:

In the video "Wharton professor: 4 scenarios for AI’s future," Ethan Mollick, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, explores the potential future trajectories of artificial intelligence (AI). Mollick emphasizes that AI, fundamentally a tool for prediction, has evolved significantly with the advent of large language models (LLMs) like those based on the 2017 breakthrough paper "Attention is All You Need." These LLMs are trained on vast amounts of data, enabling them to understand context and perform a wide array of tasks, from creativity to medicine, often surpassing human capabilities.

Mollick outlines four potential scenarios for AI's future. The first, and least likely, is a static world where AI does not improve further. The second and third scenarios involve continued linear or exponential growth in AI capabilities, driven by rapid advancements and increasing integration into various industries, which already show significant performance improvements. The fourth scenario is the emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI), a state where AI surpasses human intelligence in nearly all tasks, raising concerns about human obsolescence and the potential for artificial superintelligence (ASI).

Throughout the discussion, Mollick underscores the importance of human agency in shaping AI's impact. He encourages individuals and organizations to learn to work with AI, harnessing its strengths to enhance human creativity and decision-making while remaining vigilant about its limitations and potential biases. The video concludes with a call for thoughtful regulation and societal decision-making to ensure AI serves humanity's best interests.

Ethan Mollick

Ethan Mollick is a distinguished academic and entrepreneur, currently serving as an Associate Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania¹. He holds the title of Ralph J. Roberts Distinguished Faculty Scholar¹.

Mollick's primary areas of study are innovation and entrepreneurship¹. He also examines the effects of artificial intelligence on work and education¹. His research has been published in top academic journals and is highly cited by other academics¹. His book on AI, "Co-Intelligence," is a New York Times bestseller¹.

In addition to his research and teaching, Mollick is the Co-Director of the Generative AI Lab at Wharton¹. This lab builds prototypes and conducts research to discover how AI can help humans thrive while mitigating risks¹.

Before his academic career, Mollick co-founded a startup company¹. He continues to advise numerous organizations¹. He received his PhD and MBA from MIT’s Sloan School of Management and his bachelor’s degree from Harvard University¹.

Mollick is also the Co-Founder and Faculty Director of Wharton Interactive². He has published award-winning papers on topics ranging from crowdfunding to entrepreneurial strategy². He co-authored "Changing the Game: How Video Games Are Transforming the Future of Business," which was named one of the American Library Association’s top ten business books of the year². He has studied the way that games can be used to motivate performance and to educate².

His dedication to innovation, entrepreneurship, and the transformative power of AI has made him a respected figure in his field¹². His work continues to influence the way we understand and approach the intersection of business and technology¹².

Source: Conversation with Copilot, 6/5/2024

(1) Ethan Mollick – Management Department.

(2) Ethan Mollick | Wharton Interactive.

(3) Ethan Mollick - Faculty and Instructors - Executive Education.

(4) Ethan Mollick | Penn GSE - University of Pennsylvania.

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