Wednesday, March 6, 2024

g-f(2)2048 The Echoes of Empires Past: Why Putin's Imperial Ambitions Are Doomed

 


genioux Fact post by Fernando Machuca and Claude


Introduction


The article examines the historical pattern of empires collapsing and their subsequent attempts at re-imperialization, focusing on Russia's current efforts to recreate its former empire and the factors that will likely lead to its failure.



genioux GK Nugget


"History demonstrates that empires built on sudden conquest and sustained by ideology rather than institutions inevitably overextend and collapse when military, economic, and governmental foundations prove inadequate." — Fernando Machuca and Claude



genioux Foundational Fact


Russia's trajectory mirrors that of other empires that suffered sudden collapse, such as Wilhelmine Germany and Austria-Hungary, where the persistence of imperial ideology motivated attempts at re-imperialization, the success of which depended on the balance of power among the core, periphery, and intervening states.



Top 10 genioux Facts




  1. Empires typically decay gradually until only the imperial center remains, but some collapse suddenly due to cataclysmic events.
  2. Sudden imperial collapse often leads to attempts at re-imperialization, driven by the persistence of imperial ideology.
  3. The success of re-imperialization depends on the balance of power among the core, periphery, and intervening states.
  4. The Bolsheviks successfully recreated the Russian Empire as the Soviet Union, while the Nazis failed to restore Germany's lost territories.
  5. Post-Soviet Russia's trajectory mirrors interwar Germany's, with economic chaos, delegitimization of democracy, and the rise of a strong leader promising to restore the empire.
  6. Poland attempted to reconquer parts of its former empire after World War I but was ultimately defeated by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union.
  7. Austria-Hungary did not attempt re-imperialization after its collapse due to its irreversible decay and lack of a virulent imperial ideology.
  8. The Russian Federation, despite its diminished form, remains the heir to a vast internal empire with many conquered and colonized non-Russian peoples.
  9. Necessary conditions for successful re-imperialization include a powerful military, strong economy, and effective government.
  10. Russia's attempt at re-imperialization is likely to fail due to overextension and the lack of a sufficiently strong military, economy, and government.





Conclusion


The historical patterns of imperial collapse and re-imperialization suggest that Russia's current efforts to recreate its former empire are destined to fail, as it lacks the necessary military, economic, and governmental foundations to sustain its expansionist ambitions, making overextension and defeat probable outcomes.



REFERENCE

The g-f GK Article


Alexander J. MotylThe Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire, Foreign Policy (FP), November 5, 2023.



Alexander J. Motyl


Alexander John Motyl, born on October 21, 1953, is an American historian, political scientist, poet, writer, translator, and artist-painter¹. He is a professor of political science at Rutgers University in Newark, New Jersey, and is a specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the Soviet Union¹⁴.


Motyl's parents emigrated as refugees from Western Ukraine after World War II, when the region was occupied by the Soviet Union¹. He was born in New York City and graduated from Columbia University with a BA in History in 1975 and a Ph.D. in Political Science in 1984¹.


Motyl has taught at several universities, including Columbia University, Lehigh University, the Ukrainian Free University, the Kyiv-Mohyla University, and Harvard University¹. He has written extensively on the Soviet Union, Ukraine, revolutions, nations and nationalism, and empires¹. His work is highly conceptual and theoretical, attempting to ground political science in a firm philosophical base¹.


In addition to his academic work, Motyl is also a poet, a writer of fiction, and a visual artist¹. His artwork is part of the permanent collections of the Ukrainian Museum in New York City and the Ukrainian Cultural Centre in Winnipeg¹.


Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/6/2024

(1) Alexander J. Motyl - Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_J._Motyl.

(2) Alexander J. Motyl (Author of Imperial Ends) - Goodreads. https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/172413.Alexander_J_Motyl.

(3) Alexander Motyl | Rutgers SAS-Newark. https://sasn.rutgers.edu/alexander-motyl.

(4) Alexander J. Motyl - Wikiwand. https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Alexander_J._Motyl.





Copilot's Summary


The article "The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire" by Alexander J. Motyl, a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark, discusses the historical patterns of empires and applies them to the current situation in Russia².


Motyl argues that the Russian Federation, like many empires before it, is attempting to re-imperialize and recreate as much of its former empire as it can². However, he predicts that this effort will ultimately fail, as most empires decay over time until all that is left is the imperial center².


He compares Russia's situation to other empires that have fallen apart suddenly and comprehensively, such as Imperial Russia, Wilhelmine Germany, and the Soviet Union². In these cases, the imperial ideology remained alive after the collapse, leading to attempts by the imperial center’s elites to recreate their former empires².


Motyl suggests that the success or failure of re-imperialization generally depends on the balance of power among the core, periphery, and any intervening states². He concludes that post-Soviet Russia's trajectory is highly similar to interwar Germany’s, with the sudden collapse followed by economic chaos, the delegitimization of a new democracy, and the rise of a strong leader who revitalizes the imperial ideology and promises to restore the empire².


Source: Conversation with Bing, 3/6/2024

(1) The Inevitable Fall of Putin’s New Russian Empire. https://www.opinionglobal.cl/the-inevitable-fall-of-putins-new-russian-empire/.

(2) Vladimir Putin Politics, Relations & Current Affairs - Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/tag/vladimir-putin/.

(3) Putin’s plan for a new Russian Empire includes both Ukraine and Belarus. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-plan-for-a-new-russian-empire-includes-both-ukraine-and-belarus/.



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References


genioux facts”: The online program on "MASTERING THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE”, g-f(2)2048, Fernando Machuca and ClaudeMarch 6, 2024, Genioux.com Corporation.
 
The genioux facts program has established a robust foundation of over 2047 Big Picture of the Digital Age posts [g-f(2)1 - g-f(2)2047].



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