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This gold knowledge article from Foreign Affairs is brilliant. The problem of hype with artificial intelligence and possible solutions in the case of its application in the United States national security services are analyzed.

CONTEXT

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There is a very real risk that expectations are being set too high and that an unwillingness to tolerate failures will mean the United States squanders AI’s potential and falls behind its rivals.

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CONTEXT

There is a very real risk that expectations are being set too high and that an unwillingness to tolerate failures will mean the United States squanders AI’s potential and falls behind its rivals.
Today, AI is once again the darling of the national security services.
And once again, it risks sliding backward as a result of a destructive “hype cycle” in which overpromising conspires with inevitable setbacks to undermine the long-term success of a transformative new technology.
Military powers around the world are investing heavily in AI, seeking battlefield and other security applications that might provide an advantage over potential adversaries.
In the United States, there is a growing sense of urgency around AI, and rightly so.
As former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper put it, “Those who are first to harness once-in-a-generation technologies often have a decisive advantage on the battlefield for years to come.”
The path to the effective uses of military AI will inevitably be rocky, with accidents and missteps amplified by overhyping.
A mismatch between expectations and reality can spell the end for new technologies and is especially likely to do so when governments prioritize quick wins over long-term potential.
There are three main chokepoints at which new technologies such as AI often fall short of inflated expectations and therefore backslide into the abyss of premature abandonment.

The first is the “valley of death,” the appropriately named gap between a technology’s development in the private sector and its acquisition by governments or militaries.
If the valley of death is safely navigated, a cumbersome and timid testing and evaluation process can be the next trap. The U.S. Department of Defense in particular needs to invest in making testing, evaluation, verification, and validation of new AI applications more efficient.
The final hurdle is real-world deployment.

Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

[genioux fact deduced or extracted from Foreign Affairs]

Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Analyzed Knowledge (EAK).

Type of validity of the "genioux fact".

Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts.

Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

The Perils of Overhyping Artificial Intelligence, Julia Ciocca, Michael C. Horowitz, and Lauren Kahn, April 6, 2021, Foreign Affairs.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

JULIA CIOCCA (@julia_ciocca) is a Research Fellow at Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania.

MICHAEL C. HOROWITZ (@mchorowitz) is Richard Perry Professor and Director of Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania.

LAUREN KAHN (@Lauren_A_Kahn) is a Research Fellow at Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania.

Extracted from Wikipedia

Foreign Affairs is an American magazine of international relations and U.S. foreign policy published by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonprofit, nonpartisan, membership organization and think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. Founded on 15 September 1922, the print magazine is currently published every two months, while the website publishes articles daily and anthologies every other month.

Foreign Affairs is considered one of the United States' most influential foreign policy magazines. Over its long history, the magazine has published a number of seminal articles including George Kennan's "X Article", published in 1947, and Samuel P. Huntington's "The Clash of Civilizations," published in 1993.

Important academics, public officials, and policy leaders regularly appear in the magazine's pages. Recent Foreign Affairs authors include Robert O. Keohane, Hillary Clinton, Donald H. Rumsfeld, Ashton Carter, Colin L. Powell, Francis Fukuyama, David Petraeus, Zbigniew Brzezinski, John J. Mearsheimer, Stanley McChrystal, Christopher R. Hill and Joseph Nye.

Extracted from LinkedIn

Julia Ciocca

Research Fellow at Perry World House

About

I recently graduated with a Bachelor's degree from the University of Pennsylvania with majors in Political Science and Russian and Eastern European Studies.

I currently serve as a Research Fellow at Perry World House where I manage the World House Student Fellows Program and conduct research on a variety of topics including military technological innovation and adoption, national security, and international relations, and I have continued working in space defense and space policy.

Extracted from Wikipedia

Michael C. Horowitz (born 1978) is an American author and professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania.

Extracted from Perry World House

Lauren Kahn is the 2019-2020 Research Fellow at Perry World House. In this role, Lauren contributes to the intellectual life of Perry World House, working on projects within the Global Innovation Program, the Graduate Associates Program, the World House Student Fellows Program, and administrative tasks, in addition to conducting and producing her own research.

A significant facet of Lauren’s work is to deepen Perry World House’s engagement with the student population at Penn, largely through designing and administering the World House Student Fellows Program.