g-f(1)25 A framework that goes beyond traditional forecasting and risk-assessment exercises

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Extra-condensed knowledge

Although organizations can never be fully prepared for an unanticipated shock, the most resilient ones learn to expect the unexpected, rebound quickly when it occurs, and take advantage of unforeseen opportunities that emerge.

• To help with those efforts, we have developed a framework that goes beyond traditional forecasting and risk-assessment exercises. 
• This approach is based on the principle of dynamic capabilities, which holds that companies need to continually adapt their resources to respond to rapidly changing and unpredictable environments. 
• Our framework provides a way forward for managers to revitalize their company’s processes, structures, and business models — and to compete effectively — in a highly dynamic business environment.

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image.

Condensed knowledge 

• We have developed a framework that goes beyond traditional forecasting and risk-assessment exercises. It consists of four sets of activities: First, develop a comprehensive set of processes to actively sense new insights (whether internal or external) that could affect the business, and hence identify threats or opportunities as early as possible. Second, organize in response to those threats or opportunities; this is likely to involve reallocating resources, revamping processes, filling capability gaps, and aligning the company’s structure and governance. Third, capture value by revising business models and restructuring relationships with other players in various ecosystems. And fourth, renew the organizational capabilities needed to create and capture value by continuing to monitor and assess results and making small adjustments over time — while also preparing for the major disruptions that require a more comprehensive overhaul.
• A Framework for Strategic Resilience

1. Sense. Management teams can’t respond to a problem if they haven’t figured out that it exists — nor can they capitalize on new opportunities they have yet to recognize. Although most organizations have some sensing activities in place, they often lack a systematic approach to gathering and sharing critical information. 
2. Organize. Leaders also need to build flexible structures and processes that enable the organization to innovate and embrace change. A key aspect of organizing is filling capability gaps that arise when a company enters a new market or revamps its business model.
3. Capture. Capturing value requires leaders to execute strategic priorities by orchestrating their company’s tangible and intangible assets — such as capital, strategic partnerships, and intellectual property — as well as making changes to business models as required.
4. Renew. Sensing activities will inevitably call the wider status quo into question and will sometimes even require that companies overhaul their entire identity.
• Renewal is best seen as a continuous endeavor. Between major transitions, there is often value in “tuning up” the company’s culture, organization, and routines. That includes considering changes to incentive systems, reporting structures, decision-making, and business processes.

• The requisite elements for an organization to establish strategic resilience are not mysterious, magical, or limited to Silicon Valley startups. Resilience requires a long-term, dogged commitment by the executive team to cultivate an innovative organizational culture and a mature set of dynamic organizational capabilities. By remaining relentlessly curious, anticipating disruption, and preparing the organization to adapt quickly, management teams can develop strategies more effectively despite significant uncertainty — positioning their companies to better compete regardless of what the future holds.

Category 1: A new, better world for everyone

[genioux fact extracted from MIT SMR]

Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

Plotting Strategy in a Dynamic World, David J. Teece, Paul G. Raspin, and David R. Cox, September 08, 2020, MIT Sloan Management Review, Fall 2020, Vol 62, No 1. 

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

David J. Teece is the Thomas W. Tusher Professor in Global Business at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. Paul G. Raspin is a managing director at Stratevolve and a visiting fellow and senior lecturer at the Cranfield School of Management at Cranfield University. David R. Cox is a managing director at Berkeley Research Group.