g-f(2)129 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, WSJ, Marty Makary, We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April.

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news

Extra-condensed knowledge

• Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. 
• If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
• In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.
• Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
• Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
• There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. 
• At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image

Condensed knowledge 

• Dr. Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”
• My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts. 
• Herd immunity has been well-documented in the Brazilian city of Manaus, where researchers in the Lancet reported the prevalence of prior Covid-19 infection to be 76%, resulting in a significant slowing of the infection. 

Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

[genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from WSJ]

Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Deduced and Extracted Knowledge (EDEK).

Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

• Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts + Supported by research.

Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April, Marty Makary, February 18, 2021, The Wall Street Journal, WSJ. 

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Dr. Marty Makary is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, chief medical adviser to Sesame Care, and author of “The Price We Pay.”

Extracted from Wikipedia

Martin "Marty" Makary is an American surgeon, New York Times bestselling author, and Johns Hopkins health policy expert. 

• He has written for The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, TIME, Newsweek, and CNN, and appears on NBC and Fox News. 
• He is the author of The Price We Pay, a book about how business leaders and families can lower their health care costs and the grass-roots movement to restore medicine to its mission. 
• Dr. Makary practices surgical oncology and gastrointestinal surgery at the Johns Hopkins Hospital and teaches public health policy at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. 
• Makary works in health care innovation, quality measurement science, frail and vulnerable populations, and public health disparities. 
• He served in leadership roles at the United Nations World Health Organization for the Safe Surgery Saves Lives initiative. 
• Makary was named one of the most influential people in healthcare by Health Magazine. 
• In 2018, Makary was elected to the National Academy of Medicine.

g-f(2)91 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, NYT, China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring.

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news

Extra-condensed knowledge

NYT. China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring.

• Delays, inconsistent data, spotty disclosures and the country’s attacks on Western rivals have marred its ambitious effort to portray itself as a leader in global health.
• China’s coronavirus vaccines were supposed to deliver a geopolitical win that showcased the country’s scientific prowess and generosity. Instead, in some places, they have set off a backlash.
• China remains on a par with the United States in the number of vaccines approved for emergency use or in late-stage trials.

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The “genioux facts” Knowledge Big Picture (g-f KBP) charts

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The “genioux facts” Knowledge Big Picture (g-f KBP) graphic

Condensed knowledge  

• NYT. China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring.
• Delays, inconsistent data, spotty disclosures and the country’s attacks on Western rivals have marred its ambitious effort to portray itself as a leader in global health.
• China’s coronavirus vaccines were supposed to deliver a geopolitical win that showcased the country’s scientific prowess and generosity. Instead, in some places, they have set off a backlash.
• China remains on a par with the United States in the number of vaccines approved for emergency use or in late-stage trials. 
• Officials in Brazil and Turkey have complained that Chinese companies have been slow to ship the doses and ingredients.
• Disclosures about the Chinese vaccines have been slow and spotty. The few announcements that have trickled out suggest that China’s vaccines, while considered effective, cannot stop the virus as well as those developed by Pfizer and Moderna, the American drugmakers.
• Beijing officials who had hoped the vaccines would burnish China’s global reputation are now on the defensive.
• At least 24 countries, most of them low and middle income, signed deals with the Chinese vaccine companies because they offered access when richer nations had claimed most of the doses made by Pfizer and Moderna. 
• The delays in getting the Chinese vaccines and the fact that the vaccines are less effective mean that those countries may take longer to vanquish the virus.
• State media has started a misinformation campaign against the American vaccines, questioning the safety of the Pfizer and Moderna shots and promoting the Chinese vaccines as a better alternative.
• Sinopharm, a state-owned vaccine maker, and Sinovac have said they can produce up to a combined two billion doses this year, making them essential to the global fight against the coronavirus.
• China’s campaign has been plagued with doubts, however. Many people have memories of the country’s vaccine scandals. 
• Several governments remain angry about Beijing’s lack of openness about the virus in the early days of the pandemic.
• A YouGov survey this month of roughly 19,000 people in 17 countries and regions showed that most were distrustful of a Covid-19 vaccine made in China. The misinformation campaign surrounding Western vaccines could further undermine its image.

Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

[genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from NYT]

Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Deduced and Extracted Knowledge (EDEK).

Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

• Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts.

Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring., Sui-Lee Wee, January 25, 2021, The New York Times, NYT.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Sui-Lee Wee

Sui-Lee Wee is a correspondent for The New York Times in the Beijing bureau. She has covered China for close to a decade and writes about social issues, gender, genetic surveillance, health care and the intersection of demographics and the economy.

g-f(2)90 THE BIG PICTURE OF THE DIGITAL AGE, WSJ, Purchasing-managers surveys show American economy gaining momentum, risk of recession growing in Europe

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news

Extra-condensed knowledge

The U.S. economy picked up momentum at the start of the year, while Europe showed a growing risk of a second recession amid tougher restrictions to contain coronavirus infections, surveys of purchasing managers showed.

• Part of the difference between the U.S. and European performance in January might be the result of more severe lockdowns that were imposed in Europe this month compared with the U.S., said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.
• The eurozone economy has suffered a weak start to the year, with high coronavirus infection rates and government restrictions increasing the risk of a second recession since the pandemic first struck last year.

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image

Category 2: The Big Picture of the Digital Age

[genioux fact produced, deduced or extracted from WSJ]

Type of essential knowledge of this “genioux fact”: Essential Deduced and Extracted Knowledge (EDEK).

Type of validity of the "genioux fact". 

• Inherited from sources + Supported by the knowledge of one or more experts Supported by a survey.

Authors of the genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

U.S. Business Activity Gains at Start of Year, Paul Hannon and Kim Mackrael, Updated Jan. 22, 2021 11:13 am ET, The Wall Street Journal, WSJ.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Paul Hannon 

Reporter, The Wall Street Journal

Twitter account

Kim Mackrael

Reporter, The Wall Street Journal

Twitter account

g-f(4)3 For children, during the coronavirus pandemic, according to science, schools are the best place to be

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news 

Extra-condensed knowledge

When it comes down to where children are safest during the coronavirus pandemic, CDC Director Robert Redfield says schools are the best place to be.

• Redfield said evidence shows that students are contracting the respiratory illness from family gatherings and local events rather than schools.
• Political leaders and school administrators are once again shifting millions of American kids back to virtual leaning as coronavirus cases mount.
• In both Europe and the United States, schools have not been linked to substantial transmission, and teachers and family members have not been shown to be at extra risk (this is more clear of elementary schools than of high schools). 

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image. 

Condensed knowledge

1. Fox News. CDC director says schools are among 'safest places' kids can be. When it comes down to where children are safest during the coronavirus pandemic, CDC Director Robert Redfield says schools are the best place to be.
• At a coronavirus task force briefing held at the White House on Thursday, Redfield said evidence shows that students are contracting the respiratory illness from family gatherings and local events rather than schools.
• “The infections that we’ve identified in schools when they’ve been evaluated were not acquired in schools. They were actually acquired in the community and in the household,” he explained, citing task force coordinator Dr. Deborah L. Birx, who believes Americans are getting comfortable in removing protective face masks.
• “The truth is, for kids K-12, one of the safest places they can be, from our perspective, is to remain in school, and it’s really important that following the data, making sure we don’t make emotional decisions about what to close and what not to close,” Redfield continued. “I’m here to say clearly the data strongly supports that K-12 schools — as well as institutes of higher learning — really are not where we’re having our challenges.”
2. WaPo. The Health 202: The evidence doesn't support closing schools to stop the coronavirus. Political leaders and school administrators are once again shifting millions of American kids back to virtual leaning as coronavirus cases mount.
• Yet data from the fall semester indicates schools aren’t a big vector for the virus after all.
• “We have not seen schools as a major source of transmission for covid, particularly in the low-prevalence areas,” said Emily Oster, an economics professor at Brown University. “I think that suggests it’s possible to reopen schools safely, probably more than we are currently doing.” 
• Infection rates are extremely low among students and teachers in both public and private schools. That’s according to a database created by Oster, who noticed there was no central place to track how the virus was spreading in elementary, middle and high schools and wanted to fill that need.
• The nation's top infectious disease expert, Anthony S. Fauci, said last night he too was a proponent of keeping schools open if at all feasible. 
• In schools that have opened classrooms full or part time, there are 17 daily cases for every 100,000 students.
• A new UNICEF report underscores Oster’s findings. The U.N. agency said data from 91 countries shows no consistent link between reopening schools and higher rates of infection from the coronavirus. The report, which warns of a “lost covid generation,” says children are more likely to get the virus outside of school settings.
3. NYT. When Trump Was Right and Many Democrats Wrong. Children have suffered because many mayors and governors were too willing to close public schools.
• I’ve been writing since May about the importance of keeping schools open, and initially the debate wasn’t so politicized. But after Trump, trying to project normalcy, blustered in July about schools needing to open, Republicans backed him and too many Democrats instinctively lined up on the other side. Joe Biden echoed their extreme caution, as did many Democratic mayors and governors. So Democrats helped preside over school closures that have devastated millions of families and damaged children’s futures. Cities such as Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C., have closed schools while allowing restaurants to operate.
• In both Europe and the United States, schools have not been linked to substantial transmission, and teachers and family members have not been shown to be at extra risk (this is more clear of elementary schools than of high schools). Meanwhile, the evidence has mounted of the human cost of school closures.
• One child in eight in America lives with a parent with an addiction — a reflection of America’s other pandemic. I’ve seen kids living in chaotic homes, and for them the school building is a refuge and a lifeline.
• America’s education system already transmits advantage and disadvantage from one generation to the next: Rich kids attend rich schools that propel them forward, and low-income children attend struggling schools that hold them back. School closures magnify these inequities, as many private schools remain open and affluent parents are better able to help kids adjust to remote learning. At the same time, low-income children fall even further behind.

Category 4: Coronavirus and other viruses

[genioux fact extracted from Fox News, Wapo, NYT]

Authors of genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

1. CDC director says schools are among 'safest places' kids can be, Cortney Moore, November 20, 2020, Fox News.
2. The Health 202: The evidence doesn't support closing schools to stop the coronavirus, Paige Winfield Cunningham, November 20, 2020, WaPo, The Washington Post.
3. When Trump Was Right and Many Democrats Wrong, Nicholas Kristof, November 18, 2020, NYT, The New York Times.

g-f(4)2 Where we are with vaccines to face the DISRUPTION of the Coronavirus

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news 

Extra-condensed knowledge

More than 150 coronavirus vaccines are in development across the world—and hopes are high to bring one to market in record time to ease the global crisis. It’s too soon to say which candidates will ultimately be successful. It can typically take 10 to 15 years to bring a vaccine to market; the fastest-ever—the vaccine for mumps—required four years in the 1960s. 

• Moderna Therapeutics. This vaccine candidate relies on injecting snippets of a virus’s genetic material, in this case messenger RNA (mRNA), into human cells. 
• Any successful vaccine based on this technology would be the first mRNA vaccine approved for human use. This vaccine requires two doses, four weeks apart.
• Moderna expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship in the U.S. by the end of the year and says it remains on track to deliver at least 500 million doses per year beginning in 2021.
• Pfizer. This vaccine candidate also relies on injecting snippets of mRNA into human cells to trigger an immune response. This vaccine requires two doses taken 21 days apart.

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image. 

Condensed knowledge

• More than 150 coronavirus vaccines are in development across the world—and hopes are high to bring one to market in record time to ease the global crisis. 
• Several efforts are underway to help make that possible, including the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed initiative, which has pledged $10 billion and aims to develop and deliver 300 million doses of a safe, effective coronavirus vaccine by January 2021. 
• The World Health Organization is also coordinating global efforts to develop a vaccine, with an eye toward delivering two billion doses by the end of 2021.
• Vaccines go through a three-stage clinical trial process before they are sent to regulatory agencies for approval—which can be a lengthy process itself.
• Given the urgent need, some vaccine developers are compressing the clinical process for SARS-CoV-2 by running trial phases simultaneously. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has stated that independent Data and Safety Monitoring Boards can end trials early if their interim results are overwhelmingly positive or negative.
• Moderna Therapeutics. This vaccine candidate relies on injecting snippets of a virus’s genetic material, in this case messenger RNA (mRNA), into human cells. It spurs the production of viral proteins that mimic the coronavirus, training the immune system to recognize its presence. Any successful vaccine based on this technology would be the first mRNA vaccine approved for human use. This vaccine requires two doses, four weeks apart.
• Status: On November 16, Moderna announced that an interim analysis of its phase three study shows the vaccine is 94.5 percent effective in preventing COVID-19—including severe cases of the disease—without any significant safety concerns. Moderna intends to apply for an emergency use authorization with the FDA in the coming weeks. 
• Moderna started the third phase of its clinical trials in July. Phase three is testing the vaccine in 30,000 U.S. participants; Moderna expects to have 20 million doses ready to ship in the U.S. by the end of the year and says it remains on track to deliver at least 500 million doses per year beginning in 2021, thanks in part to the deal it has struck with Swiss manufacturer Lonza that will allow it to manufacture up to one billion doses a year.
• Pfizer. This vaccine candidate also relies on injecting snippets of mRNA into human cells to trigger an immune response. This vaccine requires two doses taken 21 days apart. 
• Status: On November 9, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that an interim analysis of the phase three study shows the vaccine is more than 90 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 with no serious safety concerns—but as yet they have provided no data to back the claim. 
• The project is aiming to apply for emergency authorization from the FDA after the third week in November, even though the drug regulator has recently indicated it is moving away from the prospect. 
• Pfizer has signed a nearly $2 billion contract with the U.S. government to provide 100 million doses by December 2020—an agreement that goes into effect when and if the drug is approved and delivered—and hopes to supply 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021.

Category 4: Coronavirus and other viruses

[genioux fact extracted from National Geographic]

Authors of genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

Dozens of COVID-19 vaccines are in development. Here are the ones to follow. AMY MCKEEVER, November 16, 2020, National Geographic. 

AMY MCKEEVER is a senior writer and editor at National Geographic, based in Washington, DC. You can follow her on Instagram.

g-f(4)1 Where we are with the Coronavirus DISRUPTION

VIRAL KNOWLEDGE: The “genioux facts” knowledge news 

Extra-condensed knowledge

Though preliminary, the early results for the two vaccines suggest researchers can develop effective Covid-19 shots, which would be a big help in taming the pandemic.

• Moderna Inc. MRNA 1.80% said its experimental coronavirus vaccine was 94.5% effective at protecting people from Covid-19. 
• Researchers won’t have a full set of effectiveness data until a total of 151 people in the trial develop Covid-19 symptoms. Moderna expects that by the time it applies for government authorization.
• Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE said their experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective.
• Until proven vaccines are deployed at scale, the fight against coronavirus is one without an easily-defined weapon. While some countries are faring better than others, and some approaches have been a clear failure, no COVID-stricken nation can be sure of the right way forward.

Genioux knowledge fact condensed as an image. 

Condensed knowledge

1. WSJ. Moderna Inc. MRNA 1.80% said its experimental coronavirus vaccine was 94.5% effective at protecting people from Covid-19 in an early look at pivotal study results, the second vaccine to hit a key milestone. 
• The findings move the vaccine closer to wide use, because they indicate it is effective at preventing disease that causes symptoms, including severe cases.
• Moderna said it plans to ask federal health authorities by early December to clear the vaccine.
• How Messenger RNA Vaccines Work. The vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech uses a new gene-based technology known as mRNA.
• Vaccines in the Works. Instead of using the whole virus to generate an immune response, these vaccines rely on coronavirus's outer spike proteins, which are what antibodies use to recognize the virus.
• When injected into a patient, the RNA enters healthy cells where it helps orchestrate the production of coronavirus spike proteins.
2. WSJ. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the high efficacy rate for Moderna’s vaccine means it could be an effective tool to help end the pandemic. 
• “These are very impressive and very encouraging and exciting results,” Dr. Fauci said.
3. WSJ. Earlier this month Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE said their experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective at protecting people from symptomatic Covid-19 in a large clinical trial.
4. WSJ. Though preliminary, the early results for the two vaccines suggest researchers can develop effective Covid-19 shots, which would be a big help in taming the pandemic.
5. WSJ. U.S. Stock Futures Jump on Positive Moderna Vaccine Results. 
• U.S. stock futures rose on positive study results from another potential Covid-19 vaccine, with the S&P 500 set to open higher after ending last week at a record level.
6. NYT. With 11 Million Cases in the U.S., the Coronavirus Has Gotten Personal for Most People. 
• What was once a health crisis that Americans feared has evolved into one virtually everyone has experienced up close. That will affect behavior, but in many different ways.
7. WaPo. The United States could have two coronavirus vaccines available on a limited basis by year’s end.
• Biotechnology firm Moderna announced Monday that a preliminary analysis shows its experimental coronavirus vaccine is nearly 95 percent effective at preventing illness, including severe cases.
8. Fortune CEO Daily. Until proven vaccines are deployed at scale, the fight against coronavirus is one without an easily-defined weapon. 
• While some countries are faring better than others, and some approaches have been a clear failure, no COVID-stricken nation can be sure of the right way forward. 
• As explained in this worthwhile Wall Street Journal piece from yesterday, no-one even knows where most infections are taking place.
9. CNN, The New York Post. Dr. Anthony Fauci said Sunday it will still be necessary to social distance, wear masks and take other COVID-19 precautions after a vaccine becomes available to Americans.
10. Fox News. Dr. Anthony Fauci urges Americans to maintain fundamental public health policy. Fauci cautions 'gradual return' to normalcy by 'second, third' quarter 2021. 
• Speaking with Jake Tapper on Sunday morning’s “State of the Union,” Fauci speculated that it may not be until the second or third quarter of 2021 that Americans might expect to “start approaching a degree of normality.”

Category 4: Coronavirus and other viruses

[genioux fact extracted from WSJ, NYT, WaPo, Fortune CEO Daily, CNN, The New York Post, Fox News]

Authors of genioux fact

Fernando Machuca

References

Moderna’s Covid-19 Vaccine Is 94.5% Effective, Early Results Show, Peter Loftus, Nov. 16, 2020, WSJ, The Wall Street Journal. 

U.S. Stocks Open Higher on Positive Moderna Vaccine Results, Mischa Frankl-Duval and Frances Yoon, Nov. 16, 2020, WSJ, The Wall Street Journal.

With 11 Million Cases in the U.S., the Coronavirus Has Gotten Personal for Most People, Amy Harmon, Lucy Tompkins, Audra D. S. Burch and Serge F. Kovaleski, Nov. 15, 2020, NYT, The New York Times.

Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine found to be nearly 95 percent effective in a preliminary analysis, Carolyn Y. Johnson, November 16, 2020, WaPo, The Washington Post.

CEODAILY, David Mayer, November 16, 2020, Fortune CEO Daily.

Social distancing, masks still necessary after getting COVID-19 vaccine: Fauci, Jackie Salo, November 15, 2020, the New York Post, CNN.